Dejounte Murray has hit the steals over in exactly half his games (5-5-0) over the last 10 contests, averaging 1.9 steals against a 1.5 line. Despite the positive differential, flat 50% hit rate and negative ROI on both sides suggest this is a pass situation.
Expert Analysis
Murray's steal production presents a classic case of statistical noise masquerading as edge. While his 1.9 average beats the 1.5 line by 0.4 steals, the perfectly even 5-5 split tells the real story—this is a coin flip disguised as value. The negative ROI on both sides (-4.5%) indicates the market has properly priced this prop, leaving no exploitable edge for bettors. Murray's steal production has been inconsistent, alternating between hot and cold stretches with equal three-game runs in both directions. This volatility without directional bias is exactly what sportsbooks want to see. The absence of meaningful splits data further confirms there are no situational edges to exploit. Murray's defensive activity depends heavily on game flow, opponent pace, and his role within New Orleans' defensive scheme—factors that vary unpredictably game to game. When a prop shows this level of randomness with equal outcomes over a meaningful sample, it typically indicates the line is efficiently set. The recent under streak of one game means nothing in this context, as Murray has shown equal propensity for both outcomes throughout this stretch.
Betting Verdict
PASS with HIGH confidence. Murray's steals prop exemplifies a perfectly balanced market with no exploitable edge. The 50% hit rate combined with negative ROI on both sides signals an efficiently priced line where variance, not skill, determines outcomes. Save your bankroll for props with clearer directional bias and better risk-adjusted returns.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dejounte Murray's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Murray has gone 5-5-0 on steals overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% with no pushes. This perfectly even split across a meaningful sample size suggests the market has found equilibrium pricing.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dejounte Murray Steals last 10 games?
Neither side offers value. The 50% hit rate with negative ROI on both over and under bets indicates this prop is efficiently priced. Pass and look for better spots with clearer edges.
What's Dejounte Murray's average Steals last 10 games?
Murray averages 1.9 steals over his last 10 games against a typical 1.5 line, creating a +0.4 differential. However, this positive average is misleading given the perfectly even 5-5 over/under record.
How reliable is this trend?
There's no optimal time based on available data. The lack of situational splits and perfectly balanced outcomes suggest Murray's steal production is too random to predict regardless of opponent or game conditions.