Dejounte Murray's points props present a clear under opportunity with just 38.7% overs across 31 games this season. His 20.94 average sits 0.6 points below typical lines, generating strong +17.0% ROI on unders while overs hemorrhage at -26.1%. The data strongly favors betting under Murray's points totals.
Expert Analysis
Murray's scoring struggles in New Orleans reveal a player caught between roles in an offense that doesn't maximize his strengths. The 20.94 average against 21.53 lines isn't coincidental—it reflects systematic underperformance driven by reduced usage and inefficient shot selection. His transition from San Antonio's primary option to New Orleans' complementary piece has created a persistent gap between market expectations and reality. The -26.1% ROI on overs across 31 games represents substantial market mispricing, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to Murray's diminished scoring role. His longest under streak of four games indicates the trend has staying power, not just random variance. The concerning aspect is Murray's inability to capitalize on favorable matchups, suggesting his scoring limitations are structural rather than situational. With Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram commanding touches, Murray's scoring opportunities remain constrained. The 12-19 over/under record demonstrates remarkable consistency in falling short of inflated expectations, making this one of the season's most reliable under trends.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Murray's 38.7% over rate and -0.6 point differential versus lines create a sustainable edge that oddsmakers haven't corrected. The +17.0% ROI on unders reflects genuine value in a market that continues overvaluing his scoring potential. Target unders when lines exceed 21 points, particularly in games where Williamson and Ingram are healthy and commanding offensive touches.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-24 | OPP | 18.5 | 26.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-27 | OPP | 19.5 | 15.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 18.5 | 17.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 21.5 | 19.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-07 | OPP | 17.5 | 26.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 22.5 | 14.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 23.5 | 16.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 26.5 | 30.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 24.5 | 19.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 25.5 | 28.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 25.5 | 13.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 23.5 | 23.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 22.5 | 18.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-02 | OPP | 22.5 | 20.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 21.5 | 28.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dejounte Murray's Points prop record all games?
Murray's points props show a 12-19-0 over/under record across 31 games this season, hitting the over just 38.7% of the time. This represents one of the most consistent under trends among regular NBA players, with nearly two unders for every over.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dejounte Murray Points all games?
Bet under on Murray's points props with high confidence. His 38.7% over rate and +17.0% ROI on unders create clear value, while overs lose money at -26.1%. The trend shows remarkable consistency across a meaningful 31-game sample size.
What's Dejounte Murray's average Points all games?
Murray averages 20.94 points per game this season, which sits 0.6 points below his typical betting line of 21.53. This negative differential has persisted across 31 games, indicating the market consistently overvalues his scoring potential in New Orleans' offensive system.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Murray under props when lines exceed 21 points, especially with Williamson and Ingram healthy. His reduced role as a complementary scorer makes unders most valuable in games where New Orleans' primary options command heavy usage and scoring opportunities.