Dejounte Murray's assists have exceeded expectations consistently over his last 10 games, averaging 9.3 assists against an 8.0 line for a +1.3 differential. Despite a balanced 5-5 over/under record, the elevated production suggests strong playmaking form that warrants consideration on the over.
Expert Analysis
Murray's 9.3 assist average represents a significant 16.3% increase over the typical 8.0 line, indicating he's operating in an elevated playmaking role that oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to. The balanced 5-5 record masks the underlying value, as Murray is consistently producing above expectation even when hitting unders. This differential suggests he's seeing increased usage as New Orleans' primary facilitator, likely due to roster construction or coaching adjustments that emphasize his court vision. The -4.5% ROI on both sides indicates efficient market pricing, but the persistent production edge creates subtle value. Murray's playmaking has always been his calling card, and when he's in rhythm distributing the ball, he tends to sustain these elevated assist totals. The recent under streak of just one game suggests no concerning downturn, while his career-high assist averages during productive stretches indicate this isn't a fluke. The key risk lies in potential game script variations or opponent pace, but Murray's natural passing instincts and New Orleans' need for creation make this trend sustainable. His ability to find teammates in transition and half-court sets has been consistently on display, creating a foundation for continued over performance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Murray's +1.3 differential above the 8.0 line demonstrates sustained playmaking excellence that creates subtle but consistent value. The 16.3% production edge over market expectations is significant enough to warrant backing, particularly given his natural facilitating role in New Orleans' offense. Primary risk involves potential pace-down games or blowout scenarios limiting his minutes, but his consistent court vision makes the over the preferred side.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-24 | OPP | 7.5 | 7.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-27 | OPP | 8.5 | 9.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 7.5 | 15.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 7.5 | 7.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-07 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 8.5 | 12.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 8.5 | 4.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 9.5 | 7.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 8.5 | 15.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 8.5 | 12.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dejounte Murray's Assists prop record last 10 games?
Murray has gone 5-5 on assists overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% while averaging 9.3 assists against a typical 8.0 line for a +1.3 differential above market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dejounte Murray Assists last 10 games?
Lean over on Murray's assists. His 9.3 average significantly exceeds the 8.0 line, creating a 16.3% edge that suggests sustained playmaking excellence worth backing despite the balanced record.
What's Dejounte Murray's average Assists last 10 games?
Murray is averaging 9.3 assists over his last 10 games compared to the typical 8.0 line, representing a meaningful +1.3 differential that indicates elevated playmaking production above market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Murray assists overs in up-tempo games where New Orleans needs primary facilitation. His natural court vision thrives in transition and when the Pelicans emphasize ball movement through their point guard.