De'Anthony Melton's assist production has been consistently disappointing, hitting the over just 40% of the time over his last 10 games while averaging 2.8 assists against a 3.0 line. The under bettors are enjoying a solid 14.6% ROI while over backers are bleeding at -23.6%.
Expert Analysis
Melton's assist struggles reflect his evolving role in Philadelphia's backcourt hierarchy. Playing alongside ball-dominant guards like Tyrese Maxey and often sharing the floor with primary initiators, Melton has been relegated to more of a spot-up shooter and defensive specialist. His 2.8 average represents a meaningful 6.7% shortfall from the 3.0 line, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his reduced playmaking responsibilities. The consistency of this underperformance is striking—he's managed just four overs in 10 games, with his longest over streak capping at two games. This isn't variance; it's a systematic role change. Melton's natural skill set leans more toward scoring and defense than pure facilitation, making him a secondary or tertiary playmaker in most lineups. The current two-game under streak aligns with this broader pattern. Without significant injuries to Philadelphia's primary ball-handlers or dramatic lineup changes, Melton's assist opportunities remain limited. The 76ers' pace and offensive system don't particularly favor secondary assist producers, and Melton's usage rate in creating for others has been minimal.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 14.6% ROI on unders combined with Melton's clear role as a complementary piece rather than primary facilitator creates a sustainable edge. Target this when the line sits at 3.0 or higher, especially in games where Philadelphia's main ball-handlers are healthy. The primary risk is a blowout scenario where garbage time creates extra possessions, but Melton's fundamental role limitations make the under the superior long-term play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is De'Anthony Melton's Assists prop record last 10 games?
Melton has gone 4-6 on assist overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% of the time. He's averaging 2.8 assists against a typical 3.0 line, creating a -0.2 differential that favors under bettors significantly.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on De'Anthony Melton Assists last 10 games?
Bet the under on Melton's assists. The 14.6% ROI on unders versus -23.6% on overs, combined with his reduced playmaking role in Philadelphia's system, creates a clear edge for under backers in this spot.
What's De'Anthony Melton's average Assists last 10 games?
Melton is averaging 2.8 assists over his last 10 games, falling 0.2 short of the typical 3.0 line. This 6.7% shortfall represents consistent underperformance that suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to his role.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Melton assist unders when the line is 3.0 or higher and Philadelphia's primary ball-handlers are healthy. Avoid in potential blowouts where garbage time could inflate his numbers through extra possessions.