De'Aaron Fox has quietly become one of the most reliable three-point over bets in the NBA, hitting the over in 55.6% of games (20-16-0 record) while averaging 3.14 makes against a 2.39 line. This +0.75 differential represents genuine value, not market inefficiency.
Expert Analysis
Fox's three-point transformation reflects Sacramento's offensive evolution and his expanded role as a primary scorer. The 3.14 average against a 2.39 line isn't just statistical noise—it represents a fundamental shift in Fox's shot profile and the Spurs' offensive system that books haven't fully adjusted to. The +6.1% ROI on overs demonstrates consistent value, while the -15.2% under ROI confirms this isn't random variance. Fox's improved mechanics and increased volume from beyond the arc have created a sustainable edge. The 20-16 record shows remarkable consistency across different game scripts, suggesting this trend isn't dependent on specific matchups or game flow. However, the recent 1-game under streak and historical 5-game under streak remind us that even strong trends face regression periods. The lack of split data prevents deeper situational analysis, but the overall sample of 36 games provides sufficient confidence in the pattern's legitimacy. Fox's three-point evolution appears structural rather than temporary, making this a trend worth riding until the market corrects.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Fox's 3.14 average significantly exceeds the typical 2.39 line, creating consistent value for over bettors. The 55.6% hit rate and positive ROI suggest genuine edge rather than variance. Best played when the line sits at 2.5 or lower, avoiding games where books have adjusted upward.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is De'Aaron Fox's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Fox has gone over his three-pointers made prop in 20 of 36 games (55.6%) while staying under 16 times. This 20-16-0 record demonstrates consistent value for over bettors across a substantial sample size spanning multiple months.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on De'Aaron Fox 3-Pointers Made all games?
Lean over on Fox's three-pointers made props. His 3.14 average significantly exceeds typical 2.39 lines, creating +0.75 value per game. The 55.6% hit rate and positive ROI confirm this edge is legitimate and worth exploiting.
What's De'Aaron Fox's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Fox averages 3.14 three-pointers made per game compared to the standard 2.39 line, creating a substantial +0.75 differential. This gap represents one of the more reliable edges in NBA player props betting markets currently.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Fox three-point overs when lines sit at 2.5 or lower, avoiding games where books have adjusted upward. The edge is strongest in standard situations rather than specific matchups, making this a consistent play across most games.