De'Aaron Fox's steals prop presents a compelling over opportunity with a 63.3% hit rate across 30 games, averaging 2.27 steals against a 1.63 line for a robust +0.6 differential. The 19-11 over record generates +20.9% ROI, making this a high-conviction play.
Expert Analysis
Fox's steal production significantly outpaces his betting line, creating consistent value for over bettors. The 2.27 average represents a 39% edge over the 1.63 line, indicating the market consistently undervalues his defensive impact. This isn't a fluke—Fox's aggressive perimeter defense and quick hands generate steals at an elite rate that books struggle to properly price. The 63.3% over rate across 30 games provides substantial sample size confidence, while the current two-game over streak suggests the trend remains intact. Fox's defensive intensity rarely wavers, as steals often come from his natural playing style rather than situational factors. The longest over streak of five games demonstrates sustainability, while the modest three-game under streak shows limited downside volatility. With a +20.9% ROI on overs versus -30.0% on unders, the directional edge is crystal clear. The lack of meaningful regression through 30 games suggests this represents a genuine market inefficiency rather than temporary variance.
Betting Verdict
OVER with HIGH confidence. Fox's 63.3% over rate and +0.6 differential create a sustainable edge that shows no signs of market correction. The 19-11 record across 30 games provides robust sample size validation, while his aggressive defensive style ensures consistent steal opportunities. Main risk involves potential rest games or blowout scenarios limiting minutes, but Fox's natural defensive instincts make this prop remarkably stable.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is De'Aaron Fox's Steals prop record all games?
Fox has hit the over in 19 of 30 games (63.3%) for his steals prop. This strong 19-11 record has generated a +20.9% ROI for over bettors while under bettors face a -30.0% loss rate.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on De'Aaron Fox Steals all games?
Bet the OVER on Fox's steals props. His 63.3% over rate and +0.6 differential above the line create a high-conviction edge. The 30-game sample provides strong validation of this market inefficiency.
What's De'Aaron Fox's average Steals all games?
Fox averages 2.27 steals per game, significantly above the typical 1.63 line. This +0.6 differential represents a 39% edge, indicating the market consistently undervalues his defensive steal production and creates betting value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Fox's steals overs in all game situations given his consistent 63.3% hit rate. His aggressive defensive style creates steal opportunities regardless of game flow, making this prop less situational than most defensive statistics.