De'Aaron Fox's blocks prop has been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 30% over rate across his last 10 games with a devastating -0.2 average differential below the 0.5 line. The under trend shows remarkable consistency with a 33.6% ROI, making this a clear lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about De'Aaron Fox's defensive limitations in shot-blocking situations. Averaging just 0.3 blocks against a consistent 0.5 line creates a significant mathematical edge, with Fox falling short by 40% of the expected total. This isn't simply variance - it reflects his role as a perimeter-focused guard who rarely ventures into rim protection scenarios. The 3-7 over-under record demonstrates consistent underperformance, while the recent 4-game under streak suggests this trend has momentum. Fox's defensive value comes from steals and pressure, not shot-blocking, which explains why oddsmakers may be overvaluing this prop. The lack of split data actually strengthens the case, as it suggests this underperformance is consistent across different matchups and situations. With guards typically recording blocks through help defense or transition situations, Fox's speed-focused playing style keeps him away from the paint where blocks naturally occur. The -42.7% ROI on overs indicates sharp money has likely identified this edge, creating line value for disciplined under bettors.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.2-block deficit against the line creates consistent value, backed by a 70% under hit rate and positive ROI. Fox's perimeter-focused defensive role naturally limits block opportunities, making 0.5 an inflated expectation. The main risk is a single help-defense block inflating his average, but the trend's consistency across 10 games suggests sustainable edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is De'Aaron Fox's Blocks prop record last 10 games?
De'Aaron Fox has gone under his blocks prop in 7 of his last 10 games, posting a 30% over rate. He's averaging just 0.3 blocks per game against the typical 0.5 line, showing consistent underperformance with a clear mathematical disadvantage.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on De'Aaron Fox Blocks last 10 games?
Bet under on De'Aaron Fox blocks props. The 70% under hit rate combined with his 0.2-block deficit below the line creates reliable value. His perimeter-focused defensive style naturally limits block opportunities, making this trend sustainable for continued under betting.
What's De'Aaron Fox's average Blocks last 10 games?
Fox averages 0.3 blocks over his last 10 games compared to the standard 0.5 line, creating a -0.2 differential. This 40% shortfall demonstrates he consistently falls below market expectations, providing mathematical edge for under bettors seeking reliable value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Fox blocks unders when he faces perimeter-heavy offenses that don't challenge the rim frequently. His speed-based defensive approach works best in transition and on the perimeter, keeping him away from paint situations where blocks naturally occur for guards.