De'Aaron Fox's blocks prop shows a massive under bias with just 10 overs in 29 games (34.5% rate). His 0.38 average sits well below the typical 0.5 line, generating strong -34.2% ROI on overs versus profitable +25.1% on unders. This represents a clear structural edge favoring the under.
Expert Analysis
De'Aaron Fox's blocks trend reveals a fundamental mismatch between market expectations and reality. Point guards historically struggle with blocks due to positional responsibilities, but Fox's 0.38 average suggests even weaker rim protection instincts than typical floor generals. The 34.5% over rate across 29 games isn't a small sample fluke—it's a systematic pattern driven by Fox's playing style and physical limitations. At 6'3", Fox lacks the length to consistently challenge shots, and his primary defensive focus remains on-ball pressure and steals rather than help defense. The -0.1 differential between his average and the standard 0.5 line creates immediate mathematical value on unders. Most concerning for over bettors is the consistency of this trend—Fox's longest over streak reached just 2 games, while he's recorded 4-game under stretches. This suggests books haven't adequately adjusted lines to reflect his true blocking ability. The +25.1% ROI on unders demonstrates sustainable profitability that's unlikely to regress significantly given Fox's defensive profile and role.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Fox's 0.38 blocks average creates consistent value against 0.5 lines, supported by his 65.5% under rate and +25.1% ROI. Target games where he faces smaller lineups or plays extended minutes at point guard, maximizing his time away from rim protection duties. Main risk is variance in a low-volume stat, but the sample size and role-based reasoning support continued under betting.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is De'Aaron Fox's Blocks prop record all games?
Fox has hit 10 overs and 19 unders in 29 games, producing a 34.5% over rate. This translates to hitting the over roughly 1 in every 3 games, well below the 50% rate needed for profitable over betting at standard odds.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on De'Aaron Fox Blocks all games?
Bet under on Fox's blocks props. His 0.38 average sits below typical 0.5 lines, generating +25.1% ROI on unders versus -34.2% on overs. The 65.5% under rate across 29 games provides strong statistical backing for this approach.
What's De'Aaron Fox's average Blocks all games?
Fox averages 0.38 blocks per game, sitting 0.1 blocks below the standard 0.5 line. This differential creates immediate mathematical value for under bettors, as he needs to exceed his season average to hit most over bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Fox blocks unders when he faces smaller lineups or plays heavy point guard minutes. These situations maximize his time handling the ball rather than providing help defense, reducing already-limited block opportunities while maintaining the favorable 0.5 line.