De'Aaron Fox delivers exceptional assists value in away games, hitting the over at a 58.8% clip with a +0.5 differential above typical lines. His 6.26 assists per away game versus 5.76 average line creates consistent profit opportunities. The data strongly favors backing Fox overs on the road.
Expert Analysis
Fox's road assists dominance stems from Sacramento's increased reliance on his playmaking away from home, where the team faces tougher defensive schemes and needs his court vision more than ever. The 0.5 assist differential above standard lines represents genuine market inefficiency, as books haven't fully adjusted to his elevated road performance. His 58.8% over rate across 34 games provides substantial sample size confidence, while the +12.3% ROI on overs demonstrates consistent profitability. The concerning -21.4% under ROI suggests books are setting lines too conservatively. Fox's assist production benefits from Sacramento's faster pace in hostile environments, where they push tempo to counteract crowd energy. Road games typically feature more possessions and transition opportunities, perfectly suiting Fox's skill set. The absence of significant regression over this extended sample indicates this isn't random variance but a sustainable edge. However, the moderate 58.8% hit rate means this isn't a lock play, and bettors should expect some natural variance. The trend's persistence across different opponents and venues strengthens its reliability for continued exploitation.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence on Fox assists props in away games. The 58.8% hit rate combined with consistent +0.5 line value creates a profitable long-term edge. Target games where Sacramento faces up-tempo opponents or teams that struggle defending pick-and-roll actions, as these amplify Fox's assist opportunities. The main risk is potential line adjustments as books catch up to this trend, so act while the value remains available.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-10 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 6.5 | 10.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 5.5 | 9.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 5.5 | 10.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 7.5 | 9.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is De'Aaron Fox's Assists prop record away games?
Fox's assists prop record in away games stands at 20-14-0 over/under, hitting the over 58.8% of the time across 34 games. This represents a solid edge with his 6.26 average significantly outpacing the typical 5.76 line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on De'Aaron Fox Assists away games?
Bet over on Fox's assists in away games. The 58.8% hit rate and +0.5 differential above standard lines create consistent value. Focus on games against up-tempo teams or poor pick-and-roll defenses for maximum edge.
What's De'Aaron Fox's average Assists away games?
Fox averages 6.26 assists per away game, which runs 0.5 assists above the typical 5.76 betting line. This consistent differential has generated +12.3% ROI on over bets across his 34-game road sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Fox assists overs in away games against fast-paced teams or weak pick-and-roll defenses. Road games where Sacramento needs his playmaking most offer the strongest value, particularly when facing teams that force higher possession counts.