Damian Lillard's three-point production plummets on one day rest, hitting under the closing line in 61.9% of games with a brutal -0.4 differential versus market expectations. The under delivers +18.2% ROI while overs hemorrhage -27.3%, making this a high-conviction fade spot.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Lillard's three-point struggles when playing on minimal rest. His 2.88 average falls significantly short of the typical 3.29 closing line, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to this pattern. The 16-26 over/under record represents a meaningful sample size that reveals legitimate fatigue effects on Lillard's shot selection and accuracy. Dame's three-point volume historically depends on rhythm and legs, both compromised by back-to-back scenarios or quick turnarounds. Milwaukee's pace and offensive flow also shift when Lillard isn't at peak energy, leading to fewer quality looks from deep. The -27.3% ROI on overs indicates sharp money has already identified this edge, while the +18.2% under return suggests continued value. Most concerning for over backers is the persistence of this trend across different opponents and game situations. Lillard's advanced age (33) makes recovery more challenging, and his heavy usage rate compounds the fatigue factor. The streak data showing longer under runs than over runs supports the sustainability of this pattern. Regression risk exists if Milwaukee adjusts their offensive system or if Lillard improves his conditioning, but the current data strongly favors continued underperformance on short rest.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Lillard's consistent underperformance on one day rest creates exploitable value, particularly when the line sits at 3.0 or higher. The -0.4 differential and 61.9% under rate indicate a legitimate edge that oddsmakers haven't fully corrected. Primary risk involves potential lineup changes or blowout games affecting his minutes, but the fatigue factor remains the dominant variable in this spot.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-11 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 7.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
Compare Damian Lillard props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Damian Lillard's 3-Pointers Made prop record 1 day rest?
Lillard goes 16-26 on three-pointers made props with one day rest, hitting under 61.9% of the time. His 2.88 average significantly trails the typical 3.29 closing line, creating a -0.4 differential that favors under bettors consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Damian Lillard 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
Bet the under on Lillard's three-pointers made with one day rest. The 61.9% under rate and +18.2% ROI provide clear value, especially when the line sits at 3.0 or higher against his 2.88 average.
What's Damian Lillard's average 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
Lillard averages 2.88 three-pointers made on one day rest compared to the typical 3.29 closing line. This -0.4 differential represents significant value for under bettors, as fatigue consistently impacts his deep shooting performance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Lillard three-point unders specifically on one day rest when the line is 3.0 or higher. Avoid his props after multiple days off when he's fresher, and focus on games where Milwaukee faces quality defense.