Damian Lillard's steals props show minimal edge over his last 10 games, hitting the over exactly 50% of the time with a modest 0.1 average differential above the 0.7 line. The flat ROI and balanced streak patterns suggest this is essentially a coin flip with no clear advantage for either side.
Expert Analysis
Lillard's steals production over this 10-game stretch reveals a player operating within his typical defensive parameters, averaging 0.8 steals against a 0.7 line that appears properly calibrated. The point guard's steal rate reflects his role in Milwaukee's defensive scheme, where he's primarily focused on offensive orchestration rather than aggressive ball-hawking. The balanced 5-5 over/under record with equal streaks of 2 games suggests books have found the sweet spot for his prop pricing. What's particularly telling is the -4.5% ROI on both sides, indicating the juice is eating into any potential edge. Lillard's steal production tends to be more opportunistic than systematic, often dependent on opponent pace and turnover tendencies rather than his own aggressive defensive play. The lack of significant variance in his numbers suggests he's settled into a consistent defensive role that prioritizes positioning and help defense over risky steal attempts. Without favorable matchup data or pace-up spots, this prop lacks the inefficiency needed to generate long-term profit. The tight clustering around his season average indicates regression to the mean has already occurred, leaving little room for exploitation.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. Lillard's steals prop represents a perfectly efficient market with no discernible edge. The 50% hit rate and negative ROI on both sides indicate the books have this line dialed in correctly. Without specific matchup advantages or pace-up scenarios, there's insufficient value to justify risking capital on either side of this balanced proposition.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Damian Lillard's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Lillard has gone 5-5-0 on his steals over/under in his last 10 games, hitting the over exactly 50% of the time. He's averaging 0.8 steals per game against a typical line of 0.7, showing minimal variance from expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Damian Lillard Steals last 10 games?
Neither side offers value on Lillard's steals props currently. The perfectly balanced 5-5 record and negative ROI on both overs and unders indicate the market is efficiently priced. Pass unless you identify specific matchup advantages.
What's Damian Lillard's average Steals last 10 games?
Lillard is averaging 0.8 steals over his last 10 games compared to his typical 0.7 line, creating a modest +0.1 differential. This slight edge hasn't translated to profitable betting opportunities due to the balanced hit rate.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Lillard steals overs against high-pace, turnover-prone teams where he'll see more possessions and steal opportunities. Avoid betting this prop in neutral matchups where his consistent role limits upside variance.