Damian Lillard's steal props at home present a perfectly balanced 13-13 over/under record with a modest +0.2 average differential above the 0.81 line. The 50% hit rate combined with negative ROI on both sides suggests efficient market pricing. Lean slight OVER based purely on the consistent differential.
Expert Analysis
Lillard's home steal production reveals a fascinating case study in market efficiency. His 1.04 average significantly exceeds the typical 0.81 line, yet the perfectly split 13-13 record suggests books have adjusted accordingly. The consistent +0.2 differential indicates Lillard maintains slightly elevated steal rates in Milwaukee's home environment, likely benefiting from familiar defensive rotations and crowd energy that can generate additional possessions. However, the negative ROI on both sides warns of sharp line movement that captures most of the value. The 26-game sample provides solid reliability, though the lack of meaningful streaks (longest runs of just 3-4 games) suggests high variance typical of defensive stats. Lillard's age and primary offensive responsibilities limit his gambling for steals, making this prop more dependent on game flow and opponent pace than individual effort. The recent 1-game under streak means nothing in this context, as steal props rarely show predictable patterns. Milwaukee's home court advantage appears genuine but modest, creating a slight edge that sharp bettors have likely already exploited.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with LOW confidence. The consistent +0.2 differential above market lines provides the only measurable edge in an otherwise efficient market. Target games against high-pace opponents or when Milwaukee is favored by large margins, as garbage time can inflate steal opportunities. The main risk is continued line adjustment that eliminates the small theoretical advantage, making this more of a volume play than a strong conviction bet.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Damian Lillard's Steals prop record home games?
Lillard's steal prop record at home games stands at exactly 13-13, hitting the over 50% of the time across 26 games. His 1.04 average consistently beats the typical 0.81 line by 0.2 steals per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Damian Lillard Steals home games?
Lean slightly toward the OVER on Lillard's steal props at home. The +0.2 differential provides a small but consistent edge, though target high-pace matchups or blowout scenarios for maximum value in this efficient market.
What's Damian Lillard's average Steals home games?
Lillard averages 1.04 steals in home games compared to the standard 0.81 line, creating a +0.2 differential. This consistent gap suggests genuine home court advantage despite the perfectly balanced 13-13 over/under record.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Lillard steal overs in fast-paced home games or when Milwaukee is heavily favored. These conditions maximize possessions and potential garbage time, where steal opportunities increase significantly compared to tight defensive battles.