Damian Lillard's steals prop shows a slight edge toward overs with a 48.2% hit rate (27-29-0) across 56 games, averaging 1.0 steals against a 0.84 line for a +0.2 differential. The under offers better ROI at -1.1% versus -8.0% for overs, suggesting a lean under approach.
Expert Analysis
Lillard's steal production presents a classic case where raw averages can mislead bettors. While his 1.0 steals per game exceeds the typical 0.84 line, the 48.2% over rate reveals books are pricing this efficiently. The -8.0% ROI on overs indicates significant juice working against bettors chasing the apparent value. Lillard's defensive profile as a smaller guard who gambles for steals creates volatility – he can rack up 2-3 steals in active defensive schemes but often settles into conservative positioning in Milwaukee's system. The Bucks' defensive philosophy emphasizes team concepts over individual gambling, which limits Lillard's steal opportunities compared to his Portland days. His age (33) and increased offensive responsibilities also suggest less energy for aggressive defensive plays. The near-even split with a slight under bias reflects a market that's learned to price Lillard's steal props accurately. Without situational edges like pace-up spots or specific matchups against turnover-prone guards, this becomes a low-conviction play where the under's superior ROI provides the only mathematical edge.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with LOW confidence. The -1.1% ROI on unders versus -8.0% on overs provides the clearest edge in an otherwise efficient market. Lillard's defensive role limitations in Milwaukee's system support the under bias, but the small sample and lack of situational data make this a minimal edge play best avoided unless finding plus-money under opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Damian Lillard's Steals prop record all games?
Damian Lillard's steals prop record shows 27 overs and 29 unders across 56 games (48.2% over rate). He averages 1.0 steals per game against a typical 0.84 line, creating a +0.2 positive differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Damian Lillard Steals all games?
Lean under on Damian Lillard steals props. The under delivers -1.1% ROI versus -8.0% for overs, and Milwaukee's defensive system limits his steal opportunities compared to his more aggressive Portland days.
What's Damian Lillard's average Steals all games?
Damian Lillard averages 1.0 steals per game across all situations, which runs 0.16 steals above the typical 0.84 line. However, this positive differential hasn't translated to profitable over betting at -8.0% ROI.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Damian Lillard steals unders when finding plus-money opportunities, as the -1.1% under ROI outperforms -8.0% over ROI. Avoid this prop without situational edges like pace-up spots or turnover-prone opponents.