Damian Lillard's points production on one day of rest presents a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 38.1% of overs across 42 games with a -2.1 point differential from the typical 25.24 line. The under delivers an 18.2% ROI while overs hemorrhage value at -27.3%, making this a clear lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a stark story about Lillard's scoring efficiency on abbreviated rest. Averaging 23.14 points against lines typically set around 25.24, Lillard consistently falls short when playing on one day of rest, creating a sustainable edge for under bettors. This isn't a small sample fluke—42 games provide robust data showing systemic underperformance in this specific rest scenario. The 38.1% over rate indicates books haven't fully adjusted their pricing to reflect Lillard's diminished scoring output in these spots. Several factors likely contribute to this trend: reduced practice time limiting offensive rhythm, less recovery time affecting his explosive first step, and potentially altered shot selection as fatigue impacts his deep range accuracy. The consistency of this underperformance—spanning from his Portland days through his Milwaukee transition—suggests this is more than situational variance. While Lillard remains capable of explosive scoring nights regardless of rest, the mathematical edge clearly favors the under when he's playing on one day of rest. The 18.2% ROI on unders demonstrates this isn't just a winning trend, but a profitable one that overcomes the standard -110 juice.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 38.1% over rate combined with an average 2.1-point shortfall creates a clear mathematical edge favoring the under. This trend spans 42 games and shows consistent profitability at +18.2% ROI. The primary risk is Lillard's proven ability to explode for 40+ point games regardless of circumstances, but the data strongly supports betting under his points total when Milwaukee plays on one day of rest.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-18 | OPP | 22.5 | 16.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-15 | OPP | 23.5 | 25.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-11 | OPP | 23.5 | 15.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-27 | OPP | 24.5 | 19.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-25 | OPP | 23.5 | 22.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-06 | OPP | 24.5 | 31.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 26.5 | 14.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 27.5 | 16.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 23.5 | 20.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 23.5 | 27.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 24.5 | 17.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 25.5 | 10.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 23.5 | 35.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 24.5 | 28.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 25.5 | 20.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Compare Damian Lillard props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Damian Lillard's Points prop record 1 day rest?
Damian Lillard's points prop record on one day of rest is 16-26-0 over/under (38.1% overs) across 42 games from November 2023 to March 2025, showing consistent underperformance against the betting lines in this specific rest scenario.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Damian Lillard Points 1 day rest?
Bet under on Damian Lillard's points when he plays on one day of rest. The data shows a clear edge with 38.1% overs, -2.1 average differential, and 18.2% ROI on unders across 42 games.
What's Damian Lillard's average Points 1 day rest?
Damian Lillard averages 23.14 points on one day of rest, which is 2.1 points below the typical line of 25.24. This consistent shortfall creates value for under bettors in this specific rest situation.
How reliable is this trend?
The best time to bet Lillard's points props is when Milwaukee plays on one day of rest, where unders show 18.2% ROI. Avoid overs in this spot as they lose 27.3% long-term.