Damian Lillard's points props present a clear under opportunity with just 41.9% overs across 74 games. The veteran guard averages 24.11 points against a 25.31 line, creating a -1.2 differential that has generated +10.9% ROI on unders. This systematic underperformance suggests continued value betting under.
Expert Analysis
Lillard's transition to Milwaukee has created a perfect storm for under betting. The 41.9% over rate reflects his adjustment to playing alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo, where Lillard often defers in crucial scoring moments. His 24.11 average versus the 25.31 line reveals books haven't fully adjusted to his reduced usage rate in the Bucks' system. The -20.0% ROI on overs demonstrates how consistently the market overvalues his scoring potential. At 34 years old, Lillard's explosive nights are becoming less frequent as he manages his workload over a full season. The current two-game under streak aligns with his season-long pattern of falling short of inflated expectations. His longest under streak of six games shows this isn't just variance—it's systematic underperformance. The +10.9% under ROI across 74 games provides substantial evidence that books are slow to adjust his lines downward. Milwaukee's improved depth and Lillard's willingness to facilitate rather than force shots creates an environment where his scoring output consistently disappoints bettors taking the over.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Lillard's 41.9% over rate and -1.2 differential create consistent value on unders, particularly when books set lines above 25 points. The ideal condition is any line at or above his season average of 25.31, where the market's overvaluation becomes most apparent. The main risk is regression to his career norms, but his age and reduced role in Milwaukee's offense suggest this trend has staying power.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-18 | OPP | 22.5 | 16.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-16 | OPP | 22.5 | 19.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-15 | OPP | 23.5 | 25.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-11 | OPP | 23.5 | 15.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-05 | OPP | 23.5 | 34.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-27 | OPP | 24.5 | 19.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-25 | OPP | 23.5 | 22.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-10 | OPP | 28.5 | 38.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-06 | OPP | 24.5 | 31.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-23 | OPP | 23.5 | 31.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 26.5 | 14.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 27.5 | 16.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 26.5 | 29.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 23.5 | 20.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 23.5 | 27.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Damian Lillard's Points prop record all games?
Lillard's points props show a 31-43-0 over/under record across 74 games, hitting overs just 41.9% of the time. This represents a significant market inefficiency with unders providing consistent value throughout the season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Damian Lillard Points all games?
Bet under on Lillard's points props. His 41.9% over rate and +10.9% under ROI across 74 games create clear value, especially when lines exceed his 24.11 average. The trend shows persistence rather than random variance.
What's Damian Lillard's average Points all games?
Lillard averages 24.11 points per game against an average line of 25.31, creating a -1.2 differential. This gap between performance and market expectations has been consistent across 74 games, favoring under bettors significantly.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Lillard under props when lines are set at 25+ points, particularly after strong performances when books inflate his number. His reduced role in Milwaukee's system makes these elevated lines especially vulnerable to underperformance.