Damian Lillard's blocks prop presents a compelling under opportunity with just 30% overs over his last 10 games and a devastating -42.7% ROI on over bets. His 0.3 average sits 0.2 blocks below the typical 0.5 line, creating consistent value on unders.
Expert Analysis
Lillard's blocks trend reflects the fundamental reality of his defensive role and physical limitations as a 6'2" point guard. His 0.3 blocks per game over this 10-game stretch isn't an anomaly—it aligns with his career defensive profile where rim protection simply isn't part of his skill set. The current five-game under streak demonstrates how consistently this prop fails to reach even the modest 0.5 threshold. What makes this trend particularly reliable is that blocks aren't subject to game script variations like scoring props. Lillard can't manufacture blocks through increased usage or hot shooting—he's either in position to deflect a shot or he isn't. His defensive positioning focuses on ball pressure and steals rather than shot blocking, making the under a structural advantage rather than a temporary cold streak. The 33.6% ROI on under bets validates this edge mathematically. Unlike volatile stats that can spike unexpectedly, blocks for perimeter players like Lillard require specific defensive rotations and opponent mistakes that rarely align consistently. The persistence of this trend suggests books may be setting the line based on casual bettor expectations rather than Lillard's actual defensive impact, creating a sustainable edge for sharp under action.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Lillard's 0.3 blocks average creates a 0.2-block cushion below the standard 0.5 line, while his 30% over rate and five-game under streak demonstrate remarkable consistency. The structural nature of this edge—a point guard who simply doesn't block shots—makes regression unlikely. Target this prop in any matchup where the line sits at 0.5, as Lillard's defensive role and physical limitations make unders the mathematically superior play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Damian Lillard's Blocks prop record last 10 games?
Lillard has gone 3-7-0 on blocks overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% of over bets. He's averaging 0.3 blocks against a typical 0.5 line, creating a -0.2 differential that heavily favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Damian Lillard Blocks last 10 games?
Bet under on Lillard's blocks with high confidence. His 30% over rate, five-game under streak, and 0.3 average well below the 0.5 line create a clear mathematical edge for under bettors.
What's Damian Lillard's average Blocks last 10 games?
Lillard is averaging 0.3 blocks over his last 10 games, sitting 0.2 blocks below the standard 0.5 line. This significant gap explains why over bets have produced a devastating -42.7% ROI.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Lillard blocks unders when the line is set at 0.5, which is standard. His defensive role as a point guard makes blocks largely matchup-independent, so this edge applies consistently regardless of opponent.