Damian Lillard's assists prop on one day rest presents a perfectly balanced 21-21 record with 50.0% over rate, averaging 6.64 against a typical 6.67 line. The microscopic -0.03 differential and negative ROI on both sides suggest this is an efficient market with minimal edge for systematic betting.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a remarkably efficient market around Lillard's assists prop following one day of rest. Over 42 games spanning nearly two seasons, his 6.64 average sits just 0.03 assists below the standard 6.67 line, indicating sportsbooks have accurately priced this specific situation. The perfect 21-21 split suggests no inherent bias toward overs or unders in this rest scenario. The negative ROI on both sides (-4.5%) reflects the vig working against bettors in what appears to be a coin-flip proposition. Lillard's role as Milwaukee's primary facilitator remains consistent regardless of rest patterns, as his usage rate and responsibility for initiating offense don't fluctuate significantly with one day between games. The absence of meaningful splits data reinforces that external factors haven't created exploitable patterns. The current one-game under streak following previous streaks of four overs and five unders demonstrates the random walk nature of this prop. Without clear driving factors like pace advantages, specific opponent vulnerabilities, or rest-related performance changes, this becomes a pure variance play where the house edge makes long-term profitability unlikely.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. The perfectly balanced 21-21 record and minimal line differential indicate an efficiently priced market with no systematic edge. The negative ROI on both sides confirms the vig is working against bettors in what amounts to a coin flip. Without identifiable patterns or driving factors that create value, this prop lacks the edge required for profitable long-term betting.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-18 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-15 | OPP | 7.5 | 8.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-11 | OPP | 6.5 | 11.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-27 | OPP | 7.5 | 4.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-25 | OPP | 7.5 | 3.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-06 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 6.5 | 2.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 6.5 | 11.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 6.5 | 12.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Damian Lillard's Assists prop record 1 day rest?
Damian Lillard's assists prop record on one day rest shows a perfectly balanced 21-21 over/under split across 42 games, representing exactly 50.0% over rate with no directional edge in this specific rest scenario.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Damian Lillard Assists 1 day rest?
Pass on Damian Lillard's assists prop with one day rest. The perfectly balanced record and negative ROI on both sides indicate an efficiently priced market without systematic betting value.
What's Damian Lillard's average Assists 1 day rest?
Damian Lillard averages 6.64 assists on one day rest compared to the typical 6.67 line, creating a minimal -0.03 differential that suggests accurate market pricing for this situation.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid betting Damian Lillard's assists props on one day rest due to market efficiency. Look for games with pace advantages, specific opponent vulnerabilities, or clear rest-related performance patterns instead.