Damian Lillard's assists prop shows a strong 57.1% over rate in away games, hitting 20 of 35 attempts with a +0.5 differential above the typical line. The 9.1% ROI on overs suggests consistent value, making this a lean over situation for road contests.
Expert Analysis
Lillard's elevated assist production away from home reflects the natural dynamics of road basketball, where teams typically rely more heavily on their primary playmaker to initiate offense in hostile environments. The 7.11 average against a 6.59 line represents meaningful value that has persisted across 35 games, suggesting this isn't random variance but a legitimate edge. Road games often feature different pace dynamics and defensive schemes that can create more assist opportunities for elite point guards like Lillard, particularly as the Bucks adjust their offensive approach in unfamiliar settings. The 9.1% ROI on overs indicates the market hasn't fully adjusted to this pattern, while the concerning -18.2% under ROI shows the danger of fading this trend. However, bettors should note the recent stumble with one under in the last game, though this follows a strong four-game over streak earlier in the sample. The lack of extreme streaks (longest over just four games) suggests sustainable rather than boom-bust performance, which actually strengthens the case for continued over production.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 57.1% hit rate combined with a +0.5 average differential creates legitimate value that the market hasn't fully recognized. Road environments consistently push Lillard into higher usage as Milwaukee's primary facilitator, and the 9.1% ROI demonstrates this edge has held across a meaningful sample. The main risk lies in potential regression to the mean and the recent under, but the underlying factors supporting elevated road assist numbers remain intact.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-18 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-11 | OPP | 6.5 | 11.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-25 | OPP | 7.5 | 3.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-06 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 6.5 | 2.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 6.5 | 11.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 6.5 | 12.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 6.5 | 2.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 5.5 | 10.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Damian Lillard's Assists prop record away games?
Damian Lillard's assists prop in away games shows a 20-15-0 record, hitting the over 57.1% of the time across 35 games. This translates to a profitable 9.1% return on investment when betting overs in road contests.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Damian Lillard Assists away games?
Bet the over on Damian Lillard's assists in away games. The 57.1% hit rate and +0.5 average differential above the line create consistent value, supported by road dynamics that increase his playmaking responsibilities for Milwaukee.
What's Damian Lillard's average Assists away games?
Damian Lillard averages 7.11 assists in away games, which runs 0.5 assists above the typical line of 6.59. This meaningful differential has held steady across 35 games, creating a mathematical edge for over bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Damian Lillard assists overs specifically in away games, where his 57.1% success rate and 9.1% ROI are strongest. Road environments consistently push him into higher usage as Milwaukee's primary facilitator and offensive initiator.