Coby White's home points props present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 43.2% overs across 37 games with a -1.8 point differential from his typical 19.23 line. The consistent underperformance at home, averaging 17.41 points, creates sustainable betting value on the under.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a pronounced home court disadvantage for White's scoring output, contradicting conventional wisdom about players performing better in familiar environments. His 17.41 point average at home falls meaningfully short of typical lines around 19.23, creating a systematic mispricing that has persisted across 37 games. This isn't merely variance—White appears genuinely less aggressive offensively at home, possibly due to increased ball movement in Chicago's system when playing with crowd support or different rotational patterns that limit his usage. The 8.3% ROI on unders demonstrates this edge has been profitable despite the inherent juice. White's current two-game under streak aligns with his season-long pattern, though his longest under streak reached five games, suggesting the trend can extend significantly. The absence of recent hot streaks (longest over streak only four games) reinforces that his home scoring struggles aren't just a temporary slump. Bettors should note that this edge exists specifically in the home environment—road games may present different dynamics entirely.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. White's home scoring consistently falls short of market expectations, with the -1.8 differential and 8.3% under ROI providing mathematical support. Target this edge when lines sit at 19+ points, particularly during homestands when fatigue might compound the effect. The main risk is variance catching up, but 37 games provide substantial sample size validation.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 25.5 | 25.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-11 | OPP | 20.5 | 5.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-06 | OPP | 18.5 | 23.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-23 | OPP | 19.5 | 11.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 19.5 | 8.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-26 | OPP | 17.5 | 9.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 17.5 | 24.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 18.5 | 2.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 19.5 | 22.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 20.5 | 18.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 19.5 | 22.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 17.5 | 11.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 20.5 | 12.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 19.5 | 22.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 21.5 | 14.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Coby White's Points prop record home games?
White's home points props show a 16-21-0 record (43.2% overs) across 37 games, averaging 17.41 points against typical lines around 19.23. This consistent underperformance has generated an 8.3% ROI on under bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Coby White Points home games?
Bet under on White's home points props. His 43.2% over rate and -1.8 point differential from market lines create a profitable edge, with unders showing 8.3% ROI over 37 games.
What's Coby White's average Points home games?
White averages 17.41 points in home games, running 1.8 points below his typical line of 19.23. This consistent gap has persisted across 37 games, creating systematic value on under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target White's home points unders when lines exceed 19 points, especially during extended homestands. His home court disadvantage for scoring appears strongest with higher lines, maximizing the mathematical edge.