Chet Holmgren's three-point props with 2+ days rest present a dead-even betting proposition, hitting 6-6 over/under with exactly 1.5 makes against 1.5 lines. The perfect equilibrium suggests books have this dialed in correctly. With negative ROI on both sides and no meaningful edge, this is a clear pass.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a remarkably balanced trend that offers little betting value. Holmgren's 50.0% over rate with extended rest indicates neither fatigue nor extra preparation significantly impacts his perimeter shooting. The -4.5% ROI on both sides confirms the market has efficiently priced these props, leaving sharp bettors without a meaningful edge. What's particularly telling is the perfect 1.5 average matching the standard line—this suggests Holmgren's three-point volume remains consistent regardless of rest advantages. The current two-game under streak, while notable, represents normal variance rather than a predictive pattern given the small 12-game sample. The lack of splits data prevents deeper contextual analysis, but the core numbers suggest Holmgren's role and shot selection remain stable with extra rest. Unlike players who might see increased usage or different positioning after extended breaks, Holmgren appears to maintain his standard offensive rhythm. This consistency, while admirable for team purposes, eliminates the market inefficiencies that create profitable betting opportunities. The absence of meaningful trends in either direction, combined with the negative expected value, makes this a textbook example of a prop to avoid despite the appealing surface-level balance.
Betting Verdict
PASS with HIGH confidence. The perfect 50-50 split with negative ROI on both sides screams market efficiency. Books have Holmgren's rest-based three-point props dialed in precisely, offering no edge to exploit. While the two-game under streak might tempt contrarian thinking, the small sample size and balanced historical performance provide no statistical foundation for a profitable wager.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 12 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Chet Holmgren's 3-Pointers Made prop record 2+ days rest?
Holmgren has gone 6-6 over/under on three-pointers made with 2+ days rest across 12 games. He averages exactly 1.5 makes against 1.5 lines, creating a perfectly balanced 50.0% over rate with no meaningful edge.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Chet Holmgren 3-Pointers Made 2+ days rest?
Pass on both sides. The 6-6 record with -4.5% ROI over and under shows the market has this prop perfectly priced. No statistical edge exists, making this a textbook example of an efficient market to avoid.
What's Chet Holmgren's average 3-Pointers Made 2+ days rest?
Holmgren averages exactly 1.5 three-pointers made with extended rest, matching the standard 1.5 line perfectly. This zero differential indicates consistent shooting volume regardless of rest advantages, offering no betting value.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid Holmgren's three-point props entirely with 2+ days rest. The balanced performance and negative ROI indicate market efficiency. Focus on props with clearer directional trends or exploitable matchup-based edges instead.