Chet Holmgren's blocks production on one day of rest shows a slight under bias, hitting the under 51.3% of the time across 39 games. While his 2.38 average beats the typical 2.17 line by 0.2 blocks, the -2.1% under ROI suggests modest value on that side.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a fascinating contradiction in Holmgren's shot-blocking performance with minimal rest. His 2.38 blocks per game average exceeds the standard line, yet the under cashes 51.3% of the time, creating a profitable -2.1% ROI scenario. This suggests oddsmakers may be overvaluing his rim protection capabilities when playing back-to-back situations or with just one day between games. The modest sample size of 39 games provides reasonable confidence, though the differential isn't dramatic enough to suggest a systematic market inefficiency. Holmgren's length and timing make him a natural shot-blocker, but fatigue and positioning adjustments on short rest appear to impact his ability to consistently reach the elevated lines books set for him. The absence of dramatic streaks—longest over streak of four, under streak of five—indicates this isn't a momentum-driven trend but rather a consistent pattern tied to rest disadvantage. The current single-game over streak suggests recent variance, but the underlying fundamentals favor continued under performance when Holmgren takes the court with limited recovery time.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 51.3% under rate combined with superior ROI creates a viable betting angle, though the edge isn't overwhelming. Target this spot when Holmgren faces teams that don't heavily attack the rim or in games where Oklahoma City projects to play with a lead, limiting his defensive intensity. The primary risk is his natural shot-blocking ability overwhelming the rest disadvantage in any individual contest.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Chet Holmgren's Blocks prop record 1 day rest?
Holmgren's blocks prop on one day rest shows a 19-20 over/under record across 39 games, meaning the under hits 51.3% of the time with a -2.1% ROI advantage over the -7.0% over ROI.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Chet Holmgren Blocks 1 day rest?
Lean under on Holmgren's blocks with one day rest. The 51.3% under rate and superior ROI create a modest edge, particularly when facing teams that don't aggressively attack the rim or challenge his positioning.
What's Chet Holmgren's average Blocks 1 day rest?
Holmgren averages 2.38 blocks per game on one day rest, which runs 0.2 blocks above the typical 2.17 line. Despite this positive differential, the under still provides better long-term value at 51.3% hit rate.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Holmgren blocks unders when he's playing on one day rest against teams with perimeter-oriented offenses or when Oklahoma City projects to control the game pace and limit defensive intensity requirements.