Chet Holmgren's blocks prop has hit the over in 6 of his last 10 games (60%), averaging 2.1 blocks against a typical 1.7 line for a +0.4 differential. The over bet shows a solid +14.6% ROI during this stretch. Lean Over on Holmgren's blocks props.
Expert Analysis
Holmgren's blocks production represents one of the more reliable defensive props in the NBA right now, with his 2.1 average significantly outpacing the standard 1.7 line set by sportsbooks. The 7-foot rookie's exceptional length and timing have translated into consistent shot-blocking production that oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to yet. His 60% over rate coupled with the +14.6% ROI on over bets suggests this isn't random variance but a sustainable edge based on his unique physical tools and defensive instincts. The fact that he's averaging nearly half a block more than the typical line indicates books are still pricing him based on rookie expectations rather than his demonstrated ability. Holmgren's shot-blocking doesn't rely heavily on matchup-dependent factors like rebounding props do - his length and positioning allow him to impact shots regardless of opponent. The current two-game over streak aligns with his overall trend, and there's little reason to expect regression when his physical advantages remain constant. The main concern is potential foul trouble limiting his minutes, but his disciplined defensive approach has kept him on the court consistently. This appears to be a case where the market is slow to adjust to a rookie's immediate impact.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Holmgren's 2.1 average blocks versus the typical 1.7 line represents a meaningful edge that sportsbooks haven't fully corrected. His unique combination of size, timing, and court awareness makes him a consistent shot-blocking threat regardless of matchup. The main risk is foul trouble reducing his minutes, but his disciplined play style has minimized this concern. Target overs when the line sits at 1.5 or below for maximum value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Chet Holmgren's Blocks prop record last 10 games?
Holmgren has gone over his blocks prop in 6 of his last 10 games for a 60% over rate. He's averaging 2.1 blocks during this stretch, consistently outpacing the typical 1.7 line set by sportsbooks.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Chet Holmgren Blocks last 10 games?
Lean over on Holmgren's blocks props. His 2.1 average significantly exceeds the standard 1.7 line, creating a +0.4 edge. The +14.6% ROI on overs suggests this is a sustainable advantage worth targeting.
What's Chet Holmgren's average Blocks last 10 games?
Holmgren is averaging 2.1 blocks over his last 10 games compared to the typical 1.7 line. This +0.4 differential represents meaningful value, as he's consistently exceeding market expectations with his shot-blocking production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Holmgren blocks overs when the line is set at 1.5 or below for maximum value. His length and defensive instincts make him matchup-independent, so focus on line value rather than opponent-specific factors.