Chet Holmgren's assists props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 1 of 10 overs (10.0%) with a brutal -1.0 average differential below his 2.4 line. The Thunder center is averaging only 1.4 assists over this stretch, making the under a strong lean.
Expert Analysis
Holmgren's assist struggles reflect his evolving role as Oklahoma City's primary rim protector and floor spacer rather than a facilitating big man. The 7-foot-1 center operates primarily in pick-and-roll coverage and spot-up situations, limiting his opportunities to create for teammates. His 1.4 assists per game over this 10-game sample represents a significant departure from earlier expectations, as the Thunder have streamlined their offense around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams as primary initiators. The consistency is striking - Holmgren hit a devastating 9-game under streak before his lone over, suggesting this isn't random variance but a systematic shift in usage. His positioning as a rim-running center and perimeter defender keeps him away from high-assist situations, while Oklahoma City's pace and ball movement patterns favor guards and wings for facilitation. The -80.9% ROI on overs tells the story of books being slow to adjust to this reality. Unless the Thunder dramatically alter their offensive philosophy or Holmgren sees increased point-forward duties, this under trend appears sustainable given his current role definition.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Holmgren's 10.0% over rate and -1.0 differential represent a clear market inefficiency that books haven't properly adjusted for. His rim-running role limits assist opportunities, and the Thunder's guard-heavy facilitation keeps him away from playmaking situations. Target unders when the line sits at 2.5 or higher, as his 1.4 average provides excellent cushion.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Chet Holmgren's Assists prop record last 10 games?
Holmgren has gone 1-9-0 on assists overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 10.0% of overs with a +71.8% ROI on unders. He's averaging 1.4 assists against a typical 2.4 line, creating a significant -1.0 differential that favors under bettors consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Chet Holmgren Assists last 10 games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Holmgren's 10.0% over rate and -1.0 average differential represent a clear edge, as his rim-running role limits assist opportunities. The Thunder's offense runs through guards, keeping him away from facilitation duties that would boost his assist totals.
What's Chet Holmgren's average Assists last 10 games?
Holmgren is averaging 1.4 assists over his last 10 games, sitting a full assist below his typical 2.4 line. This -1.0 differential reflects his role as a rim protector and floor spacer rather than a facilitating big, creating consistent value on under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Holmgren assists unders when lines are set at 2.5 or higher, giving maximum cushion against his 1.4 average. Avoid when he faces pace-up matchups or if injury reports suggest increased point-forward usage, though his current role makes such scenarios unlikely.