Chet Holmgren's assists prop at home presents a clear under opportunity, hitting just 44.8% of overs across 29 games with a -0.1 average differential below the typical 2.53 line. The under has delivered +5.3% ROI while overs bleed -14.4%, making this a high-conviction fade spot.
Expert Analysis
Holmgren's assist production at home reveals a player whose playmaking responsibilities don't match the betting market's expectations. At 2.48 assists per home game against a 2.53 line, he's consistently falling short by small margins that compound into profitable betting edges. The Thunder's home offensive system appears to limit Holmgren's distribution role, likely emphasizing his scoring and rim protection instead. His current three-game under streak aligns with a longer pattern – he's recorded five consecutive unders as his longest streak, suggesting books haven't fully adjusted to his actual usage patterns. The 44.8% over rate indicates systematic line inflation, possibly due to his college reputation as a versatile playmaker. Most concerning for over backers is the consistency of this trend across a full season sample. Unlike shooting percentages that can fluctuate wildly, assist production typically reflects stable role allocation and offensive schemes. The Thunder's pace and ball movement patterns at home seem to consistently channel assists through other players, making Holmgren more of a finisher than facilitator in their home environment.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The consistent underperformance against inflated lines creates value, but the small sample size and narrow margins prevent this from being a max play. Target games where Holmgren faces interior-focused defenses that limit his perimeter touches. Main risk is offensive system changes or increased usage in blowouts, but the current trend shows sustainable edge potential.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Assists Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Chet Holmgren's Assists prop record home games?
Chet Holmgren's assists prop record in home games stands at 13-16-0 over/under, hitting just 44.8% of overs. He averages 2.48 assists per home game against typical lines around 2.53, creating a slight but consistent shortfall.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Chet Holmgren Assists home games?
Bet under on Chet Holmgren's assists in home games. The 55.2% under success rate and +5.3% ROI provide clear value, while overs have lost -14.4%. His role in Oklahoma City's home system consistently limits playmaking opportunities.
What's Chet Holmgren's average Assists home games?
Chet Holmgren averages 2.48 assists in home games, running 0.05 assists below the typical 2.53 line. This small but persistent gap has created consistent value for under bettors across 29 games this season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Chet Holmgren assist unders in home games against defensively focused opponents who limit his perimeter touches. Avoid games with blowout potential where garbage time could inflate his assist totals through increased usage.