The under has been the play for Caleb Ward on Steals props vs top 10 defense. In 158 games, he's gone OVER just 25.0% of the time, averaging 0.8 against a 1.24 line. That's -0.44 below the number—sharp bettors have been fading this prop.

The Numbers: 34-102-22 O/U

25.0% Over Rate
0.8 Avg STL
1.24 Avg Line
-0.4 Avg vs Line
-52.3% Over ROI
158 Games
OVER 25.0%
UNDER 75.0%
🚫 Verdict: Smash the Under

Performance vs Line

Line shows prop line, bars show actual performance. Green = Over, Red = Under.

Game Log (Last 0 Games)

Date Opp Line Actual +/- Result

Showing most recent games. View full game log →

Situational Splits

Home vs Away

Home 26.6% Over (17-47)
Away 23.6% Over (17-55)

By Line Range

Line ≤ 1.0 39.4% Over
Line > 1.0 9.2% Over

Recent Trend

Last 5 0.0% Over (0-3)
Last 10 12.5% Over (1-7)

Why This Trend Exists

Analysis coming soon. This trend shows interesting patterns worth monitoring.

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📉 The Data Says: UNDER on Caleb Ward Steals

The UNDER has returned +43.2% ROI in this spot. Shop for the best number.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is Caleb Ward's Steals prop record vs top 10 defense?

Caleb Ward has gone OVER on steals props in 34 of 158 games (25.0%) vs top 10 defense. The full O/U record is 34-102-22.

Should I bet the OVER or UNDER on Caleb Ward Steals?

Based on historical data, the UNDER has been more profitable. The OVER has returned -52.3% ROI while the UNDER has returned +43.2% ROI in this spot.

What's Caleb Ward's average Steals vs top 10 defense?

Caleb Ward averages 0.8 steals vs top 10 defense, compared to an average prop line of 1.24. That's a differential of -0.4 vs the number.

How reliable is this Steals trend for Caleb Ward?

This trend is based on 158 games. With 20+ games, this is a reliable sample size. The data spans from 2020-10-07 to 2025-06-17.

Methodology

This analysis covers 158 games from 2020-10-07 to 2025-06-17. Over/Under results are calculated using closing prop lines. ROI assumes -110 juice on all bets. Pushes are excluded from percentage calculations.

Last Updated: February 04, 2026