Caleb Ward's Points props vs bottom 10 defense have been a mixed bag. In 158 games, he's hit the over 47.9% of the time, averaging 15.6 against a 16.03 line. The -0.42 differential suggests no strong lean either way— look for additional edges before betting this spot.

The Numbers: 70-76-12 O/U

47.9% Over Rate
15.6 Avg PTS
16.03 Avg Line
-0.4 Avg vs Line
-8.5% Over ROI
158 Games
OVER 47.9%
UNDER 52.1%
⚖️ Verdict: Coin Flip

Performance vs Line

Line shows prop line, bars show actual performance. Green = Over, Red = Under.

Game Log (Last 0 Games)

Date Opp Line Actual +/- Result

Showing most recent games. View full game log →

Situational Splits

Home vs Away

Home 52.8% Over (38-34)
Away 43.2% Over (32-42)

By Line Range

Line ≤ 15.0 70.6% Over
Line > 15.0 28.2% Over

Recent Trend

Last 5 75.0% Over (3-1)
Last 10 44.4% Over (4-5)

Why This Trend Exists

Analysis coming soon. This trend shows interesting patterns worth monitoring.

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📊 No Clear Edge Here

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is Caleb Ward's Points prop record vs bottom 10 defense?

Caleb Ward has gone OVER on points props in 70 of 158 games (47.9%) vs bottom 10 defense. The full O/U record is 70-76-12.

Should I bet the OVER or UNDER on Caleb Ward Points?

Based on historical data, the UNDER has been more profitable. The OVER has returned -8.5% ROI while the UNDER has returned -0.6% ROI in this spot.

What's Caleb Ward's average Points vs bottom 10 defense?

Caleb Ward averages 15.6 points vs bottom 10 defense, compared to an average prop line of 16.03. That's a differential of -0.4 vs the number.

How reliable is this Points trend for Caleb Ward?

This trend is based on 158 games. With 20+ games, this is a reliable sample size. The data spans from 2020-10-07 to 2025-06-17.

Methodology

This analysis covers 158 games from 2020-10-07 to 2025-06-17. Over/Under results are calculated using closing prop lines. ROI assumes -110 juice on all bets. Pushes are excluded from percentage calculations.

Last Updated: February 04, 2026