Brook Lopez has hit the over just 30% of the time across his last 10 games, averaging 1.0 three-pointers against a 1.5 line for a -0.5 differential. The under has delivered a robust 33.6% ROI while overs have been catastrophic at -42.7%. This presents a clear lean toward the under.
Expert Analysis
Brook Lopez's three-point struggles over this 10-game stretch reflect a fundamental shift in his offensive role and shot selection. Averaging exactly 1.0 makes against a 1.5 line creates a significant mathematical edge for under bettors, as Lopez needs to hit at least two threes to cover the over. The 70% under rate isn't just variance – it represents a player whose three-point volume has decreased while his efficiency from deep has remained inconsistent. Lopez's role as a rim protector and interior presence has likely taken precedence, reducing his perimeter opportunities. The four-game under streak within this sample suggests sustained poor shooting rather than random fluctuation. Most concerning for over bettors is that Lopez hasn't shown the volume consistency needed to regularly clear 1.5 makes, even when his shot is falling. The -42.7% ROI on overs indicates this line hasn't properly adjusted to Lopez's reduced three-point production. Without a significant role change or matchup-driven increase in attempts, this trend appears sustainable rather than due for regression.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 70% under rate combined with a -0.5 average differential creates a mathematical edge that's difficult to ignore. Lopez's reduced three-point volume and inconsistent efficiency make clearing 1.5 makes challenging on a nightly basis. The ideal condition is when the line remains at 1.5 or higher, as Lopez rarely attempts enough threes to comfortably cover. The main risk is a blowout game where Milwaukee extends their lead early and Lopez sees increased garbage time attempts.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Brook Lopez's 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Brook Lopez has gone under his three-pointers made prop in 7 of his last 10 games (70% under rate), producing just 3 overs for a disappointing 30% success rate on the over.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Brook Lopez 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Bet the under on Brook Lopez three-pointers made props. He's averaging 1.0 makes against typical 1.5 lines, creating a -0.5 differential that strongly favors under bettors with proven 33.6% ROI.
What's Brook Lopez's average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Brook Lopez is averaging exactly 1.0 three-pointers made over his last 10 games, which sits 0.5 below the standard 1.5 line, creating a significant mathematical disadvantage for over bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Brook Lopez three-point unders when the line is 1.5 or higher, especially in games where Milwaukee's defensive focus limits his perimeter opportunities and emphasizes his rim protection duties.