Brook Lopez's three-pointers made prop shows a concerning under bias at 47.9% overs across 71 games, despite averaging 1.77 makes against a 1.5 line. The -8.6% ROI on overs signals consistent market overvaluation of his shooting volume. Lean under on this prop.
Expert Analysis
Brook Lopez's three-point prop presents a classic case of market inefficiency favoring the under. While his 1.77 average appears comfortably above the 1.5 line, the 47.9% over rate reveals the market consistently overestimates his shooting frequency. The -8.6% ROI on overs indicates systematic overvaluation, likely driven by Lopez's reputation as a stretch five and Milwaukee's offensive system encouraging big man threes. However, game flow and matchup dynamics create more volatility than the average suggests. Lopez's role as a floor-spacer means his three-point attempts fluctuate based on defensive coverages, pace of play, and whether Milwaukee needs to chase points. The modest -0.5% under ROI suggests this isn't a massive edge, but rather a steady grind spot where the market consistently prices his prop 0.1-0.2 makes too high. His recent consistency issues, evidenced by the current under streak and a longest under streak of five games, highlight how quickly his shooting volume can dry up when defenses adjust or game scripts don't favor his involvement in the offense.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 47.9% over rate and negative over ROI indicate consistent market overvaluation of Lopez's three-point volume. While his 1.77 average seems safe against 1.5, the data suggests books are pricing this prop roughly 0.2 makes too high. Target this under when Milwaukee faces defensive-minded teams or in potential blowout scenarios where Lopez's minutes could be limited. Main risk is a hot shooting night inflating his attempts beyond the typical 3-4 range.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Brook Lopez's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Lopez has gone over his three-pointers made prop in 34 of 71 games (47.9%) with a record of 34-37-0. His average of 1.77 makes appears strong against typical 1.5 lines, but the under rate of 52.1% reveals consistent market overvaluation.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Brook Lopez 3-Pointers Made all games?
Bet under on Lopez's three-pointers made props. The 47.9% over rate and -8.6% ROI on overs indicate the market consistently overprices his shooting volume by approximately 0.2 makes, creating a steady edge for under bettors.
What's Brook Lopez's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Lopez averages 1.77 three-pointers made per game, which is 0.27 makes above the standard 1.5 line. However, this seemingly comfortable margin masks the volatility that leads to unders hitting 52.1% of the time.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Lopez three-point unders when Milwaukee faces elite defensive teams that limit transition opportunities or in potential blowout scenarios. His volume depends heavily on game flow and defensive coverages, making situational spots crucial for maximizing edge.