Bradley Beal shows a clear edge on assists props with one day of rest, hitting the over in 18 of 32 games (56.2%) while averaging 5.5 assists against a typical 5.0 line. The +0.5 differential and positive ROI make this a lean over situation.
Expert Analysis
The one-day rest advantage for Beal's playmaking appears rooted in his role optimization within Phoenix's system. When Beal gets adequate recovery time, he's more engaged in creating for teammates rather than purely hunting his own shot. The 56.2% over rate isn't overwhelming, but the consistent +0.5 average differential above the line suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to this pattern. Beal's assist production has always been tied to his energy levels and willingness to facilitate, both of which benefit from proper rest. The 7.4% ROI on overs indicates sustainable value, while the brutal -16.5% under ROI warns against fading this trend. However, the current two-game over streak raises slight regression concerns, and without recent form data, we can't assess if this edge remains sharp in Phoenix's evolving offensive system. The lack of split data also prevents us from identifying optimal game scripts or matchup-specific advantages that could strengthen this play.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 56.2% hit rate combined with consistent line value creates a profitable long-term edge on Beal's assists props with one day rest. Target this spot when the line sits at 5.0 or below, as Beal's 5.5 average provides meaningful cushion. Main risk is the current over streak potentially indicating short-term regression, but the underlying rest advantage should persist.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-09 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 11.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-23 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 6.5 | 2.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 5.5 | 12.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bradley Beal's Assists prop record 1 day rest?
Bradley Beal hits the over on assists props 18 times in 32 games (56.2%) with one day of rest. He's averaging 5.5 assists in these spots, which typically beats the standard 5.0 line by half an assist.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bradley Beal Assists 1 day rest?
Lean over on Beal's assists with one day rest. The 56.2% hit rate and +0.5 average differential create sustainable value, especially when the line is 5.0 or below. Avoid during extended over streaks.
What's Bradley Beal's average Assists 1 day rest?
Beal averages 5.5 assists with one day of rest compared to typical 5.0 lines. This +0.5 differential has generated a 7.4% ROI on overs, indicating consistent value for sharp bettors targeting this spot.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Beal assists overs when he has exactly one day of rest and the line is 5.0 or below. Avoid during extended over streaks or when the line inflates above 5.5 to account for this trend.