Bojan Bogdanovic's three-pointers made prop shows a clear under bias with just 40% overs across 10 games. Despite averaging 2.9 makes against a 2.5 line, the -23.6% ROI on overs versus +14.6% on unders reveals consistent market overvaluation of his shooting volume.
Expert Analysis
The disconnect between Bogdanovic's 2.9 average and poor over performance stems from volatility in his shot selection and game flow dependency. While the veteran shooter maintains solid accuracy, his three-point attempts fluctuate dramatically based on the Knicks' offensive rhythm and his role alongside their primary scorers. The 4-6-0 record masks periods where Bogdanovic settles into a complementary role, taking fewer attempts than the market anticipates. His longest under streak of three games suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his reduced usage in certain game scripts. The +0.4 differential appears attractive on paper, but the negative ROI indicates these numbers come from a few outlier performances rather than consistent volume. Bogdanovic's shooting props are particularly susceptible to pace and blowout scenarios, where the Knicks either pull away early or fall behind significantly, limiting his fourth-quarter opportunities. The veteran's shot selection also varies considerably based on defensive attention paid to New York's primary options, making his volume less predictable than his career averages suggest.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 14.6% ROI advantage on unders outweighs the modest average differential, particularly given Bogdanovic's inconsistent shot volume in complementary roles. Target games where the Knicks face elite defenses or when pace projections suggest fewer possessions, as these scenarios historically limit his three-point attempts regardless of shooting efficiency.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bojan Bogdanovic's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Bojan Bogdanovic's three-pointers made prop record shows 4-6-0 over/under across 10 games, hitting just 40% overs. The under bets have generated a positive 14.6% ROI while overs have lost -23.6%, indicating consistent market overvaluation.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bojan Bogdanovic 3-Pointers Made all games?
Lean under on Bojan Bogdanovic's three-pointers made props. The 14.6% ROI on unders versus -23.6% on overs shows clear value betting against his volume, despite averaging 2.9 makes against the typical 2.5 line.
What's Bojan Bogdanovic's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Bojan Bogdanovic averages 2.9 three-pointers made across all games, which is 0.4 above the standard 2.5 line. However, this modest edge is misleading given the poor 40% over rate and negative ROI on over bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Bojan Bogdanovic under bets when the Knicks face elite defenses or in projected low-pace games. These scenarios historically limit his shot attempts regardless of accuracy, making the under more likely to cash despite his solid shooting percentage.