Bojan Bogdanovic has been a consistent under performer on his points props, hitting overs at just 40.0% over his last 10 games with a -1.0 point differential from his average line. The under trend shows strong profitability at +14.6% ROI, making it the clear lean.
Expert Analysis
Bogdanovic's recent scoring struggles reflect a concerning pattern that extends beyond normal variance. His 17.7 points per game average falls a full point below his typical 18.7 line, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his declining production. The 4-6-0 under record includes a brutal four-game under streak that demonstrates consistent line inflation. This trend appears sustainable given Bogdanovic's age (34) and reduced role within the Knicks' deeper rotation. His efficiency metrics likely declined as New York integrated new pieces, limiting his touches and forcing more difficult shots. The sample size of 10 games provides meaningful data without being so large that books have fully corrected. Most concerning for over bettors is the lack of explosive games - even his overs appear to barely clear the number rather than providing comfortable margins. The under trend shows persistence rather than random clustering, with Bogdanovic consistently falling short of inflated expectations. His veteran status means fewer minutes in blowouts, while increased defensive attention limits his scoring opportunities. This creates a systematic edge for under bettors that should persist until lines adjust downward.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -1.0 point differential combined with 40.0% over rate and strong +14.6% under ROI creates a sustainable edge. Target games where Bogdanovic faces length or elite perimeter defense, as his age limits explosive scoring bursts. Main risk is a hot shooting night, but the trend suggests consistent underperformance rather than random variance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 13.5 | 22.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 17.5 | 11.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-02 | OPP | 17.5 | 26.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 18.5 | 17.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-28 | OPP | 19.5 | 17.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-22 | OPP | 19.5 | 15.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 19.5 | 14.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-26 | OPP | 19.5 | 23.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-21 | OPP | 22.5 | 8.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-16 | OPP | 19.5 | 24.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Points Prop Lines
Compare Bojan Bogdanovic props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Bojan Bogdanovic's Points prop record last 10 games?
Bogdanovic has gone under his points total in 6 of his last 10 games (40.0% over rate), averaging 17.7 points against an 18.7 average line. This represents a -1.0 point differential and creates a clear underperformance pattern.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Bojan Bogdanovic Points last 10 games?
Bet under on Bogdanovic's points props. His 40.0% over rate and +14.6% under ROI demonstrate consistent line inflation. The -1.0 point differential suggests oddsmakers haven't adjusted to his declining production within New York's rotation.
What's Bojan Bogdanovic's average Points last 10 games?
Bogdanovic averages 17.7 points over his last 10 games, which falls 1.0 point below his typical 18.7 line. This differential represents the core edge, showing consistent underperformance relative to market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Bogdanovic unders against elite perimeter defenses or when facing length that limits his three-point opportunities. His veteran status means fewer garbage-time points, making unders safer in potential blowout scenarios.