Ben Simmons has been a consistent under performer on rebounds props, hitting over just 4 of 10 times (40%) while averaging 7.0 rebounds against a 7.1 line. The under trend shows strong value with +14.6% ROI versus -23.6% on overs. This points to a clear lean under.
Expert Analysis
Ben Simmons's rebounding struggles over this 10-game stretch reflect his diminished role and reduced court presence in Brooklyn's system. The 40% over rate paired with a -0.1 average differential suggests the market has been slightly overvaluing his rebounding output. The stark ROI contrast (+14.6% under vs -23.6% over) indicates consistent market mispricing rather than random variance. Simmons's rebounding has always been inconsistent when he's not the primary ball handler, and Brooklyn's pace and style often limits second-chance opportunities. The longest under streak of 4 games shows this isn't just recent variance but a sustained pattern. His rebounding totals become even more volatile when facing teams with strong interior presence or when Brooklyn falls behind early and abandons their halfcourt sets. The 7.0 average suggests he's capable of hitting his number, but the frequency and timing make unders the superior long-term play. Without significant role changes or matchup advantages, this trend appears sustainable given his current usage patterns and Brooklyn's offensive philosophy that often keeps him away from prime rebounding positions.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% under rate combined with positive ROI creates a sustainable edge, though the small sample size prevents higher conviction. Simmons's current role limits consistent rebounding opportunities, making unders the preferred play when lines sit at 7+ rebounds. The main risk is a potential role expansion if Brooklyn faces injuries or lineup changes that increase his interior presence.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-14 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-10 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-24 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-13 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 7.5 | 1.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-06 | OPP | 8.5 | 15.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-03 | OPP | 9.5 | 9.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-01 | OPP | 9.5 | 11.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Ben Simmons's Rebounds prop record last 10 games?
Ben Simmons has gone over his rebounds prop in 4 of his last 10 games (40% rate) with a 4-6-0 over/under record. He's averaging 7.0 rebounds against an average line of 7.1, showing consistent underperformance versus market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Ben Simmons Rebounds last 10 games?
Bet under on Ben Simmons rebounds props. The 60% under rate with +14.6% ROI versus -23.6% on overs shows clear value. His current role in Brooklyn limits rebounding opportunities, making unders the superior long-term play.
What's Ben Simmons's average Rebounds last 10 games?
Ben Simmons is averaging 7.0 rebounds over his last 10 games against an average line of 7.1, creating a -0.1 differential. This slight but consistent underperformance suggests the market has been overvaluing his rebounding output.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Ben Simmons rebounds unders when lines are set at 7+ rebounds and Brooklyn faces teams with strong interior presence. Avoid betting when he's facing smaller lineups or teams that play at extremely fast pace.