Ben Simmons has been a disaster for assists overs, hitting just 20% (2-8-0) over his last 10 games while averaging 5.3 assists against a 6.4 line. The -1.1 differential and brutal -61.8% ROI on overs creates a compelling under edge.
Expert Analysis
Ben Simmons's assists production has cratered over this 10-game stretch, revealing fundamental issues with his current role and effectiveness. The 5.3 average against a 6.4 line represents a significant market inefficiency, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his diminished playmaking impact. This isn't merely variance - Simmons has struggled with five consecutive unders at one point, indicating systemic problems with his court vision, aggression, or team usage patterns. The Brooklyn offense may be limiting his traditional point-forward opportunities, forcing him into more off-ball situations where assists become harder to accumulate. His assist rate appears disconnected from his historical production, creating a gap between perception and reality. The 52.7% ROI on unders demonstrates clear value, while the -61.8% loss rate on overs should terrify anyone considering the over. The consistency of this underperformance - hitting just 20% of overs across a meaningful sample - suggests this isn't a temporary slump but rather a new baseline for Simmons's assist production in Brooklyn's system.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Simmons's 5.3 assist average creates a massive 1.1-assist cushion below typical lines, while his 80% under rate over 10 games demonstrates remarkable consistency. The ideal spot is any line at 6.0 or higher, where the gap becomes even more pronounced. The main risk is a potential role change or increased usage, but his current trajectory strongly favors continued underperformance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-14 | OPP | 7.5 | 11.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-10 | OPP | 7.5 | 7.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-24 | OPP | 5.5 | 1.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-06 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-03 | OPP | 7.5 | 6.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-01 | OPP | 8.5 | 5.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Find the Best Assists Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Ben Simmons's Assists prop record last 10 games?
Ben Simmons has gone 2-8-0 over/under on assists props in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% of overs. He's averaging 5.3 assists against typical lines around 6.4, creating a significant 1.1-assist deficit.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Ben Simmons Assists last 10 games?
Bet UNDER on Ben Simmons assists props. His 80% under rate and 5.3 average vs 6.4 lines create exceptional value. The -61.8% ROI on overs and +52.7% on unders makes this a high-confidence under play.
What's Ben Simmons's average Assists last 10 games?
Ben Simmons is averaging 5.3 assists over his last 10 games, which is 1.1 assists below the typical 6.4 line. This represents a significant underperformance that creates consistent value on under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Ben Simmons assists unders when lines are 6.0 or higher, especially in Brooklyn's current system. His role limitations and 80% under rate over 10 games make any standard assist total an excellent under opportunity.