Ben Simmons has hit the assists over in just 38.5% of games this season, going 5-8 against a 6.42 average line while posting 6.0 assists per game. The under has delivered a profitable 17.5% ROI compared to a brutal -26.6% loss on overs, making this a clear fade spot.
Expert Analysis
Ben Simmons's assist production has been consistently disappointing relative to market expectations, creating a profitable underdog betting opportunity. His 6.0 assists per game falls 0.42 short of the typical line, which might seem marginal but represents a significant edge over 13 games. The 38.5% over rate tells the real story - Simmons is failing to reach his assist total nearly two-thirds of the time, likely due to Brooklyn's offensive system limiting his playmaking opportunities compared to his Philadelphia days. The Nets' pace and ball movement patterns don't maximize Simmons's court vision, while his reduced usage rate as a complementary piece rather than primary facilitator caps his ceiling. His longest under streak of five games demonstrates the consistency of this trend, while his longest over streak was just three games. The -26.6% ROI on overs is particularly damaging, suggesting the market hasn't fully adjusted to his diminished role. Without significant roster changes or system adjustments, this trend appears sustainable as Simmons continues operating in a more limited capacity than his reputation suggests.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Ben Simmons's 38.5% over rate and -0.42 differential create a clear mathematical edge for under bettors. The 17.5% ROI on unders demonstrates market inefficiency, as books appear to be setting lines based on Simmons's past reputation rather than current production. The primary risk is a potential role expansion or system change that could boost his playmaking opportunities, but his current usage pattern makes the under the superior play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-14 | OPP | 7.5 | 11.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-10 | OPP | 7.5 | 7.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-24 | OPP | 5.5 | 1.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-06 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-03 | OPP | 7.5 | 6.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-01 | OPP | 8.5 | 5.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-30 | OPP | 7.5 | 8.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-27 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-25 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Assists Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Ben Simmons's Assists prop record all games?
Ben Simmons has gone 5-8 on assists overs this season, hitting just 38.5% of his over bets. He's averaging 6.0 assists per game against a typical line of 6.42, creating a consistent 0.42 assist shortfall that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Ben Simmons Assists all games?
Bet the under on Ben Simmons assists. His 38.5% over rate and -0.42 differential create a mathematical edge, while under bets have generated a profitable 17.5% ROI compared to devastating -26.6% losses on overs this season.
What's Ben Simmons's average Assists all games?
Ben Simmons averages 6.0 assists per game this season, which falls 0.42 assists short of his typical 6.42 line. This consistent underperformance across 13 games represents a significant gap that creates value for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Ben Simmons assists unders when he's in his current complementary role with Brooklyn. His reduced usage and the team's ball movement system consistently limit his playmaking opportunities, making unders profitable regardless of opponent or game situation.