Austin Reaves shows minimal edge on three-pointers made with one day rest, hitting overs at a 51.4% clip across 35 games. His 2.09 average barely exceeds typical lines around 1.96, while negative ROI on both sides signals efficient market pricing. This represents a marginal lean over at best.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals Austin Reaves as a remarkably consistent three-point shooter when operating on one day of rest, but consistency doesn't always translate to betting value. His 51.4% over rate across 35 games suggests books have found the sweet spot in their pricing, evidenced by the brutal -7.3% ROI on unders and modest -1.8% on overs. The 0.13-point differential between his actual average (2.09) and typical lines (1.96) indicates he performs slightly above expectations, but not enough to overcome the juice consistently. What's particularly telling is the lack of extreme streaking - his longest over run hits just six games while unders max out at three, suggesting his shooting remains relatively stable regardless of rest patterns. The Lakers' pace and Reaves's role as a secondary scorer create a fairly predictable usage pattern that books have clearly adjusted to. Without splits data showing dramatic performance variations in specific matchups or game situations, this becomes a volume play where small edges get eroded by variance. The current one-game over streak means little given the relatively balanced historical pattern, and bettors should focus more on opponent-specific defensive metrics and Lakers' projected game script than the rest factor alone.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with LOW confidence. The 51.4% hit rate and slight positive performance differential provide a marginal edge, but negative ROI on both sides warns against aggressive betting. Target games where the Lakers project for higher pace or face weaker perimeter defenses to maximize the small inherent advantage. The risk lies in books adjusting lines more efficiently than the data suggests, making this more of a break-even proposition long-term.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Austin Reaves's 3-Pointers Made prop record 1 day rest?
Austin Reaves has gone over his three-pointers made prop 18 times and under 17 times with one day rest, posting a 51.4% over rate across 35 games. This represents a nearly even split with a slight lean toward overs historically.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Austin Reaves 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
Lean over on Austin Reaves three-pointers made with one day rest, but with low confidence. The 51.4% hit rate and 2.09 average provide a small edge, though negative ROI on both sides suggests limited long-term value.
What's Austin Reaves's average 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
Austin Reaves averages 2.09 three-pointers made with one day rest compared to typical lines around 1.96. This 0.13-point positive differential indicates he slightly outperforms expectations but not by a significant margin for consistent betting value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Austin Reaves three-pointers made props when the Lakers face pace-up spots or defensively vulnerable opponents. The one-day rest factor provides minimal edge, so focus on game-specific matchups rather than the rest pattern alone.