Anthony Edwards has been a consistent under play for three-pointers made at home, hitting just 33.3% of overs across 48 games with a -0.42 differential versus the typical 2.75 line. The under has delivered a robust 27.3% ROI, making this one of the more reliable home fade spots in the NBA.
Expert Analysis
Edwards' home three-point struggles stem from Minnesota's methodical pace and his role as a primary creator rather than spot-up shooter. At Target Center, the Timberwolves average 98.2 possessions per game, limiting Edwards' total shot attempts and forcing him into more contested looks as defenses key on him. His 2.33 home average represents a significant 15.3% gap below the standard 2.75 line, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his home environment limitations. The seven-game under streak earlier this season highlights how consistently Edwards falls short of inflated expectations at home. Minnesota's defensive identity often leads to grind-it-out games where Edwards focuses more on facilitating and driving to the rim rather than hunting threes. His shooting mechanics also appear less fluid in the familiar confines of home, possibly due to overthinking or pressing in front of the home crowd. The persistence of this trend across nearly 50 games indicates structural factors rather than random variance, making regression unlikely without significant changes to Minnesota's offensive system or Edwards' role allocation.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Edwards' home three-point props represent exceptional value given the 27.3% ROI and consistent 67% under rate. The -0.42 differential creates immediate value on most standard lines around 2.5-3.5. Target games where Minnesota faces elite defenses or when Edwards appears on back-to-back situations, as these amplify his tendency to settle for difficult shots rather than quality three-point looks.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-03 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anthony Edwards's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Edwards has gone under his three-pointers made prop in 32 of 48 home games (67%), posting just a 33.3% over rate. This translates to a -36.4% ROI on overs but a strong +27.3% return on unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anthony Edwards 3-Pointers Made home games?
Bet the under on Edwards' three-pointers made at home. The 67% under rate and +27.3% ROI make this one of the most reliable prop bets, especially when lines sit at 2.5 or higher.
What's Anthony Edwards's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Edwards averages 2.33 three-pointers made in home games, which is 0.42 makes below the typical 2.75 line. This 15.3% gap below expectations creates consistent value for under bettors throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Edwards three-point unders when Minnesota faces elite defenses at home or during back-to-back situations. These scenarios amplify his tendency toward difficult shots rather than quality three-point opportunities in familiar surroundings.