Anthony Edwards has been a disaster for steals overs with extended rest, hitting just 20% (2-8-0) while averaging 1.2 steals against a 1.4 line. The -61.8% ROI on overs creates a compelling fade opportunity with strong under value at +52.7% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Edwards' steals production craters with extended rest, creating one of the most reliable fade spots in player props. The 1.2 average against a 1.4 line represents meaningful value, but the underlying mechanics tell the real story. Extended rest often correlates with easier matchups or blowout potential, scenarios where Edwards sees reduced defensive intensity and fewer possessions. The Timberwolves' defensive scheme may also shift with fresh legs, potentially moving Edwards away from high-steal situations like pressing or gambling in passing lanes. The six-game under streak within this sample suggests this isn't random variance but a systematic issue with Edwards' steal production when well-rested. Minnesota's pace and game script likely change with rest advantages, leading to more controlled possessions where Edwards focuses on primary defensive responsibilities rather than freelancing for steals. The 20% hit rate is so extreme it suggests either consistent line inflation or a fundamental shift in Edwards' role with extended rest. While regression toward his season average is inevitable long-term, the sample size and consistency of results indicate this trend has legitimate predictive value for the immediate future.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 20% hit rate and -0.2 average differential create clear value, but the extreme nature of these numbers raises regression concerns. Target this spot when Edwards faces slower-paced opponents or in games where Minnesota projects as significant favorites, maximizing the conditions that have driven this trend.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anthony Edwards's Steals prop record 2+ days rest?
Edwards is 2-8-0 on steals overs with 2+ days rest, hitting just 20% while generating massive -61.8% losses for over bettors across 10 games from December 2023 to November 2024.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anthony Edwards Steals 2+ days rest?
Bet the under. Edwards averages 1.2 steals with extended rest against typical 1.4 lines, creating consistent value. The 20% over rate and +52.7% under ROI make this a high-confidence fade spot.
What's Anthony Edwards's average Steals 2+ days rest?
Edwards averages 1.2 steals with 2+ days rest, falling 0.2 short of the standard 1.4 line. This differential has created consistent value for under bettors across a meaningful 10-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Edwards steals unders when he has 2+ days rest, especially against slower-paced teams or when Minnesota is heavily favored. These conditions maximize the defensive letdown that drives this trend.