Anthony Edwards' assists prop at home presents a razor-thin edge with a 52.1% over rate across 48 games. His 4.94 average barely exceeds the typical 4.9 line, generating minimal value with negative ROI on both sides. This is a clear pass situation.
Expert Analysis
Edwards' home assists performance reveals a prop that's efficiently priced by the market, offering little exploitable value for serious bettors. The 4.94 average against a 4.9 line creates just a 0.04 edge, which evaporates when factoring in juice and variance. The 52.1% over rate suggests books have calibrated this number precisely, while the negative ROI on both sides (-0.6% over, -8.5% under) confirms the market's efficiency. Edwards' role as Minnesota's primary scorer limits his assist upside at home, where the Timberwolves often build leads and lean on his scoring rather than playmaking. The recent 9-game under streak highlights the volatility inherent in assist props, where one extra pass or missed shot can swing the outcome. Home games typically favor individual scoring props over assists for primary scorers like Edwards, as comfortable leads reduce the need for forced playmaking. The lack of meaningful splits data further supports avoiding this prop, as we cannot identify specific conditions that create edges. With Edwards averaging exactly what the line suggests over a substantial 48-game sample, this represents a textbook example of a fairly priced prop where the house edge makes both sides unprofitable long-term investments.
Betting Verdict
PASS with HIGH confidence. Edwards' 4.94 home assists average against a 4.9 line offers no meaningful edge, while negative ROI on both sides confirms market efficiency. The recent 9-game under streak and his scorer-first role at home create unpredictable variance without compensating value. Save your bankroll for props with clearer edges and better risk-reward profiles.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-06 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-03 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 9.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-01 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anthony Edwards's Assists prop record home games?
Edwards has gone over his assists prop in 25 of 48 home games (52.1% rate) with a 25-23-0 record. His 4.94 average barely exceeds the typical 4.9 line, creating minimal separation for betting value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anthony Edwards Assists home games?
Pass on both sides. The 4.94 average vs 4.9 line offers no edge, while negative ROI on overs (-0.6%) and unders (-8.5%) confirms this prop is efficiently priced with house advantage intact.
What's Anthony Edwards's average Assists home games?
Edwards averages 4.94 assists in home games compared to the standard 4.9 line. This microscopic 0.04 differential provides no meaningful betting edge when factoring in juice and natural variance in assist totals.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid Edwards assists props entirely at home. The market has priced this efficiently with no identifiable edges. Focus on his scoring props or other players with clearer statistical advantages and better risk-reward profiles.