Anthony Davis's steals prop shows modest over value at 60% hit rate over his last 10 games, though the 1.4 average exactly matches typical lines. The +14.6% ROI on overs suggests slight market inefficiency, making this a lean over situation with proper line shopping.
Expert Analysis
Davis's steal production represents one of the more volatile defensive stats to project, and this 10-game sample illustrates why. While hitting overs at a 60% clip, his 1.4 average sits precisely at market expectations, suggesting books have accurately priced his baseline production. The positive ROI on overs indicates value exists when catching favorable lines, likely in the 1.0-1.5 range. Davis's steal numbers typically correlate with game flow and opponent pace - he generates more opportunities in uptempo games where possessions increase and in competitive contests where his defensive intensity peaks. The concerning element is the limited sample size and volatility inherent in steal props. Davis can easily post 3+ steals in aggressive defensive games or go multiple contests with zero, making this prop heavily dependent on game script. His recent defensive focus under Darvin Ham's system has emphasized rim protection over perimeter disruption, which could explain why his steal numbers haven't exceeded market expectations despite solid overall defensive play. The 1-game current over streak lacks predictive value, but the longer 3-game streaks in both directions show how quickly variance can shift outcomes in small samples.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% over rate and positive ROI suggest mild market inefficiency favoring the over, particularly when finding lines at 1.0 or 1.5. Target games against pace-up opponents or when Davis faces smaller, quicker guards he can pressure. Primary risk remains the inherent volatility of steal props and Davis's inconsistent perimeter aggression game-to-game.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anthony Davis's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Davis has gone over his steals prop 6 times in his last 10 games (60% rate) while staying under 4 times. His 6-4-0 record shows modest over value with no pushes in this sample.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anthony Davis Steals last 10 games?
Lean over on Davis's steals props, especially at lines of 1.5 or lower. The 60% over rate and +14.6% ROI suggest slight market inefficiency, but only bet with proper line value.
What's Anthony Davis's average Steals last 10 games?
Davis averages exactly 1.4 steals over his last 10 games, matching typical market lines of 1.5. This precise alignment suggests books have accurately priced his baseline steal production in recent form.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Davis steal overs against high-pace opponents or when Lakers face smaller backcourts he can pressure. Avoid in blowout spots where his defensive intensity typically decreases in garbage time.