Anthony Davis has hit the over on rebounds props 60% of the time across his last 10 games, posting a 6-4-0 record while averaging 14.0 boards against a 13.7 average line. The modest +0.3 differential and +14.6% ROI on overs suggests a slight but consistent edge toward higher totals.
Expert Analysis
Davis's recent rebounding surge reflects his increased comfort playing center in smaller Lakers lineups, where he faces less competition for defensive boards from traditional big men. The 14.0 average represents a meaningful uptick from his season-long pace, driven by improved positioning and effort on the glass during the Lakers' playoff push. However, the narrow +0.3 differential above lines suggests sportsbooks have adjusted to his elevated production, making this less of a market inefficiency than it appears. The 60% over rate, while profitable, isn't overwhelming enough to ignore game-specific factors like opponent pace, rebounding rate allowed, and Davis's own minute projections. His recent form shows volatility typical of a player whose rebounding can fluctuate based on game script and energy allocation between offense and defense. The current one-game under streak isn't concerning given his previous four-game over run, but bettors should monitor whether books continue tightening lines or if Davis's rebounding maintains this elevated baseline as the season progresses.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Davis's 60% over rate and +14.6% ROI indicate genuine value, particularly when he's projected for heavy center minutes against teams that struggle controlling the glass. Target overs when the Lakers face up-tempo opponents or teams allowing high rebounding rates. Main risk is books continuing to adjust lines upward, potentially eliminating the edge that currently exists in this market.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 12.5 | 11.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 13.5 | 14.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 13.5 | 4.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 13.5 | 13.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 13.5 | 18.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 15.5 | 12.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 13.5 | 14.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 14.5 | 15.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 12.5 | 23.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 14.5 | 16.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anthony Davis's Rebounds prop record last 10 games?
Davis has gone over his rebounds prop 6 times in his last 10 games for a 60% over rate. He's averaged 14.0 rebounds against an average line of 13.7, producing a +14.6% ROI on over bets during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anthony Davis Rebounds last 10 games?
Lean over on Davis rebounds props. His 60% over rate and +14.6% ROI show consistent value, especially when he's playing center minutes. Target games against poor rebounding teams or up-tempo opponents for maximum edge.
What's Anthony Davis's average Rebounds last 10 games?
Davis has averaged 14.0 rebounds over his last 10 games compared to an average line of 13.7. This +0.3 differential indicates he's been slightly outperforming market expectations, though the margin isn't massive.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Davis rebounds overs when he's projected for heavy center minutes against teams allowing high rebounding rates or playing at faster pace. Avoid when facing elite rebounding teams or in potential blowout scenarios affecting his minutes.