Anthony Davis has consistently fallen short of his points lines in home games, hitting the over just 41.2% of the time across 34 games. The Lakers star averages 24.03 points against a typical 25.65 line, creating a -1.6 differential that has delivered +12.3% ROI on unders. This represents a clear statistical edge favoring the under.
Expert Analysis
Davis's home struggles stem from the Lakers' offensive ecosystem at Crypto.com Arena, where ball distribution patterns and pace changes create fewer scoring opportunities for their big man. The 41.2% over rate isn't random variance—it reflects systematic factors that persist in familiar surroundings. Davis often defers more to teammates like LeBron James in comfortable home settings, leading to fewer shot attempts and reduced usage rates. The -1.6 point differential between his actual scoring and oddsmakers' expectations suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to this home pattern. While Davis remains capable of explosive performances, the consistency of this trend across 34 games indicates structural rather than circumstantial causes. The +12.3% ROI on unders demonstrates genuine value, though bettors should monitor for potential market correction as books catch up to this pattern. Davis's home environment appears to subtly impact his offensive aggression and shot selection in ways that consistently favor the under.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 58.8% under rate and +12.3% ROI create legitimate value, but Davis's elite talent prevents this from being a high-conviction play. Target unders when his line sits above 25 points, especially in games where the Lakers are favored and likely to control pace. Main risk is a vintage Davis explosion that can happen regardless of trends, making position sizing crucial.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 23.5 | 4.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 23.5 | 22.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 25.5 | 36.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 24.5 | 23.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 24.5 | 22.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 25.5 | 8.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 23.5 | 27.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 23.5 | 22.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 25.5 | 14.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 25.5 | 24.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-02 | OPP | 23.5 | 17.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 24.5 | 28.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-13 | OPP | 24.5 | 20.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 23.5 | 32.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-25 | OPP | 26.5 | 22.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Points Prop Lines
Compare Anthony Davis props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anthony Davis's Points prop record home games?
Anthony Davis has gone under his points prop in 20 of 34 home games (58.8%), with an average of 24.03 points. His over record stands at just 14-20-0, significantly below the break-even rate needed for profitable over betting.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anthony Davis Points home games?
Bet the under on Davis's points props in home games. The 58.8% under rate and +12.3% ROI provide clear statistical value, especially when his line exceeds 25 points in favorable Lakers matchups.
What's Anthony Davis's average Points home games?
Davis averages 24.03 points in home games compared to his typical 25.65 line, creating a -1.6 differential. This consistent gap below expectations has been the foundation for profitable under betting throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Davis under bets in home games when his line is set above 25 points and the Lakers are favored. These conditions maximize the edge while minimizing risk of outlier performances.