Anthony Davis's points props present a clear under opportunity with just 26 overs in 62 games (41.9%). His 24.5 scoring average consistently falls short of typical 25.44 lines, creating a -0.9 differential that has delivered +10.8% ROI on unders all season.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Anthony Davis's scoring patterns this season. At 24.5 points per game against lines averaging 25.44, Davis has consistently been overvalued by oddsmakers, hitting the over in just 41.9% of games. This isn't a small sample aberration—across 62 games, the pattern has held remarkably steady. The -19.9% ROI on overs versus +10.8% on unders represents one of the season's most reliable prop trends. Davis's scoring has been hampered by the Lakers' improved depth and LeBron James's continued usage, limiting his offensive ceiling. While he remains capable of explosive nights, the consistency simply isn't there for over betting. The longest under streak of six games demonstrates how sustained these cold stretches can be, while even his hot streaks max out at four consecutive overs. Most telling is how Davis has failed to consistently exceed even modest lines—this isn't about inflated numbers, but rather a player whose role and efficiency have shifted enough to create genuine value on the under. The trend appears sustainable given the Lakers' offensive distribution and Davis's health management approach limiting his ceiling games.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Davis's 41.9% over rate and consistent -0.9 line differential create legitimate value on unders, particularly when lines sit at 25 or higher. The +10.8% ROI on unders reflects a genuine market inefficiency rather than variance. Main risk is a return to his dominant scoring form, but the Lakers' current offensive structure suggests this trend continues.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 24.5 | 30.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 22.5 | 36.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 23.5 | 4.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 23.5 | 22.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 24.5 | 35.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 25.5 | 21.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 23.5 | 24.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 25.5 | 24.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 24.5 | 34.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 25.5 | 36.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 24.5 | 23.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 24.5 | 22.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 25.5 | 8.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 24.5 | 22.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 23.5 | 27.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anthony Davis's Points prop record all games?
Anthony Davis has hit the over on his points prop in just 26 of 62 games this season (41.9%), with 36 unders. His average of 24.5 points consistently falls short of typical 25.44 lines, creating a reliable under trend.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anthony Davis Points all games?
Bet under on Anthony Davis points props. His 41.9% over rate and -0.9 average differential versus lines have produced +10.8% ROI on unders all season. The Lakers' offensive structure limits his scoring ceiling consistently.
What's Anthony Davis's average Points all games?
Anthony Davis averages 24.5 points per game this season, nearly a full point below his typical 25.44 line. This -0.9 differential has been remarkably consistent across 62 games, creating clear under value throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Anthony Davis under bets when lines are set at 25 or higher, especially in back-to-back situations or when the Lakers face elite defenses. His scoring ceiling is most limited when load management concerns arise.