Anthony Davis blocks props at home present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 40.0% overs with a brutal -0.1 average differential versus the line. The Lakers' home environment hasn't provided the defensive intensity boost you'd expect, making unders the profitable play with +14.6% ROI.
Expert Analysis
The Anthony Davis blocks under trend at Staples Center reflects a fascinating intersection of pace, defensive scheme, and opponent strategy. Davis averages 2.2 blocks per home game against a typical 2.3 line, creating consistent value on unders. Home games often feature different defensive rotations where Davis plays more help defense rather than aggressive rim protection, as the Lakers can rely on crowd energy and familiar surroundings for stops. The sample size of 30 games provides statistical significance, while the -23.6% ROI on overs demonstrates how consistently the market overvalues Davis's shot-blocking at home. His longest under streak of six games suggests this isn't random variance but a systematic pattern. The key factor appears to be opponent adjustment - visiting teams often attack the rim less aggressively, reducing Davis's block opportunities. Additionally, home games frequently see the Lakers build leads, leading to less desperate defensive possessions where Davis might chase blocks. The 12-18-0 record represents a sustainable edge, as oddsmakers continue pricing Davis's blocks based on his elite reputation rather than his actual home performance patterns.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 40% over rate and +14.6% under ROI create a mathematical edge that's hard to ignore. Davis consistently falls short of inflated home lines, averaging 2.2 blocks versus 2.3 expectations. The main risk is a single explosive performance skewing short-term results, but the 30-game sample suggests this pattern has staying power in the Lakers' home defensive scheme.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anthony Davis's Blocks prop record home games?
Anthony Davis has gone under his blocks prop in 18 of 30 home games (60%), posting a 12-18-0 record. This 40% over rate is significantly below the break-even threshold needed for profitable over betting.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anthony Davis Blocks home games?
Bet under on Anthony Davis blocks at home. The 60% under rate and +14.6% ROI on unders provides a clear mathematical edge, while overs show a devastating -23.6% return on investment.
What's Anthony Davis's average Blocks home games?
Anthony Davis averages 2.2 blocks per home game, which is 0.1 blocks below the typical line of 2.3. This negative differential consistently creates value on under bets throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Davis blocks unders during home games against teams that play slower pace or rely on perimeter offense. Avoid when facing teams missing key players who might force more aggressive rim attacks.