Anthony Davis has hit the assists over in exactly half his last 10 games (5-5-0), but he's averaging 2.5 assists against a 2.9 line — a concerning 0.4 differential. Despite a current 4-game over streak, the underlying numbers suggest regression is coming.
Expert Analysis
The 50% hit rate on Davis's assists props masks a deeper issue: he's consistently falling short of market expectations by nearly half an assist per game. This 0.4 differential represents meaningful value erosion that the current 4-game over streak is masking. Davis's assist production has always been volatile, tied directly to the Lakers' offensive flow and his positioning within their sets. When Los Angeles runs more pick-and-roll with Davis as the hub, his assist numbers spike. However, the Lakers have increasingly utilized him in post-up situations and as a finisher rather than facilitator, limiting his playmaking opportunities. The recent over streak likely reflects temporary tactical adjustments or favorable matchups rather than a sustainable shift in role. With LeBron James healthy and Russell Westbrook's departure changing the team's assist distribution, Davis's playmaking responsibilities have become more situational. The market appears to be overvaluing his recent hot streak while ignoring the season-long trend of underwhelming assist production. Regression toward his true mean seems inevitable, especially as opponents adjust to recent tactical changes and the Lakers potentially revert to more traditional offensive sets that minimize Davis's facilitating role.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.4 negative differential tells the real story despite the current 4-game over streak. Davis's assist production remains heavily matchup and game-script dependent, with the Lakers increasingly using him as a finisher rather than facilitator. Target unders when facing teams that defend the paint well and force LA into isolation sets, as this minimizes Davis's playmaking opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anthony Davis's Assists prop record last 10 games?
Anthony Davis has gone over his assists prop in exactly 5 of his last 10 games (5-5-0 record, 50% hit rate). He's currently riding a 4-game over streak, but previously had a 5-game under streak.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anthony Davis Assists last 10 games?
Lean under on Davis's assists props. Despite the current 4-game over streak, he's averaging 0.4 assists below the line over this 10-game sample, suggesting the market is overvaluing his recent hot stretch.
What's Anthony Davis's average Assists last 10 games?
Anthony Davis is averaging 2.5 assists over his last 10 games compared to a typical line of 2.9. This 0.4 negative differential indicates he's consistently falling short of market expectations despite the 50-50 record.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Davis assists unders when the Lakers face teams with strong interior defense that force isolation plays. Avoid betting when LA runs more pick-and-roll sets or faces pace-up opponents that create extra possessions.