Anthony Davis has obliterated assists overs in home games, posting a dominant 24-10 record (70.6%) while averaging 3.74 assists against a typical 3.09 line. This +0.65 differential represents one of the most consistent prop edges in the market, delivering +34.8% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Davis transforms into a facilitator at Crypto.com Arena, where the Lakers' offensive system maximizes his playmaking opportunities. The home environment allows Davis to operate more comfortably in the high post, creating natural passing lanes to cutters and spot-up shooters. His 3.74 home assists average represents a significant uptick from his career norms, suggesting the Lakers deliberately run more offense through Davis when playing in familiar surroundings. The 70.6% over rate isn't just impressive—it's sustainable because it stems from scheme rather than variance. Davis benefits from better floor spacing at home, where role players shoot more confidently and LeBron James operates more effectively off-ball. The current five-game over streak aligns perfectly with this broader trend, as Davis has found consistent rhythm in the Lakers' half-court sets. Most importantly, this isn't a small sample fluke—34 games provide robust evidence that oddsmakers consistently undervalue Davis's home playmaking. The -43.9% under ROI tells the story: betting against Davis's assists at home has been a wealth destroyer. With no concerning injury history affecting his passing and the Lakers' system remaining constant, this edge appears likely to persist throughout the season.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Davis's 70.6% home over rate backed by a +0.65 average differential creates legitimate value, especially during the current five-game streak. Target games where the Lakers face uptempo opponents or when Davis is listed questionable but plays—he often compensates for limited mobility by increasing his playmaking. Main risk is the Lakers blowing out opponents early, reducing Davis's fourth-quarter involvement.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anthony Davis's Assists prop record home games?
Davis posts a stellar 24-10 assists over/under record in home games (70.6% overs), averaging 3.74 assists against typical lines around 3.09. This represents one of the most profitable prop trends in basketball.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anthony Davis Assists home games?
Lean over on Davis assists at home. The 70.6% over rate with +34.8% ROI provides clear value, especially during his current five-game over streak. Target games against uptempo opponents for maximum edge.
What's Anthony Davis's average Assists home games?
Davis averages 3.74 assists in home games, significantly above the typical 3.09 line set by oddsmakers. This +0.65 differential has proven remarkably consistent across 34 games, creating sustainable betting value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Davis assists overs in home games against fast-paced opponents or when he's listed questionable but plays. Avoid potential blowouts where he might sit the fourth quarter, reducing assist opportunities.