Anthony Davis has been a consistent assists prop goldmine, hitting the over in 59.7% of games with a robust +13.9% ROI. His 3.58 average significantly outpaces the typical 3.03 line, creating sustained value. This represents a clear lean over with medium-high conviction.
Expert Analysis
Davis's assists prop success stems from the Lakers' evolving offensive identity under Darvin Ham, where the big man increasingly functions as a hub in high-post situations. His 3.58 average against a 3.03 line represents genuine market inefficiency, not statistical noise. The 37-25-0 record demonstrates remarkable consistency across a full season sample, suggesting this isn't variance but structural change. Davis's assist production correlates strongly with his increased comfort handling the ball in transition and his chemistry with role players who've learned to cut and move around his positioning. The current four-game over streak aligns with his season-long pattern rather than indicating due regression. Books appear slow to adjust lines upward, likely anchored to Davis's historical assist rates from earlier career phases when he operated more exclusively in the paint. The lack of significant under streaks (longest just five games) indicates sustainable skill development rather than hot shooting from teammates. His assist rate remains stable regardless of LeBron James's presence, as Davis has carved out distinct playmaking responsibilities. The 13.9% ROI over such a large sample suggests genuine edge rather than random clustering. Market perception lags behind Davis's actual expanded role, creating ongoing value for sharp bettors who recognize his evolution into a more complete offensive weapon.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM-HIGH confidence. Davis has fundamentally evolved as a passer, and the market hasn't fully caught up to his expanded playmaking role. The 59.7% hit rate with positive ROI over 62 games represents legitimate edge, not variance. Target overs when the line sits at 3.0 or below for maximum value. Primary risk is potential lineup changes or Davis reverting to pure post-up situations, but his current role appears sustainable given the Lakers' offensive structure.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anthony Davis's Assists prop record all games?
Anthony Davis has gone over his assists prop in 37 of 62 games (59.7%) this season, with zero pushes. His consistent production has generated a profitable +13.9% return on investment for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anthony Davis Assists all games?
Bet the over on Davis assists props. His 3.58 season average significantly exceeds typical 3.03 lines, and the 59.7% hit rate with positive ROI demonstrates sustainable edge in the market.
What's Anthony Davis's average Assists all games?
Davis averages 3.58 assists per game this season, running 0.55 assists above the standard 3.03 line. This substantial differential has created consistent value for over bettors throughout the campaign.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Davis assists overs when lines are set at 3.0 or below for maximum value. His expanded playmaking role appears most pronounced in the Lakers' current offensive system, making this edge sustainable.