Anfernee Simons three-pointers made props have hit the under 60% of the time over his last 10 games, generating a solid 14.6% ROI on unders while overs lose at -23.6%. His 3.5 average perfectly matches the typical line, but the distribution favors unders. LEAN UNDER.
Expert Analysis
Anfernee Simons' three-point shooting has been remarkably consistent yet subtly disappointing over his last 10 games. While his 3.5 average exactly matches the standard betting line, the distribution tells a more nuanced story that sharp bettors can exploit. The 60% under rate isn't driven by dramatic cold streaks but rather consistent slight misses—games where Simons hits 2 or 3 threes instead of the 4+ needed for overs. This pattern suggests his shot selection or game flow isn't consistently generating the high-volume three-point attempts needed to clear inflated lines. Portland's pace and Simons' role as a primary scorer means he'll always have opportunities, but the betting market appears to be pricing in his ceiling performances rather than his median output. The -23.6% ROI on overs indicates the market is overvaluing his three-point upside, while the positive under ROI confirms this edge is sustainable. Without dramatic changes to his usage or Portland's offensive system, this trend appears more structural than streaky, making it a reliable betting angle for disciplined under backers.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 14.6% ROI on unders combined with the 60% hit rate creates a clear mathematical edge that outweighs the modest sample size concerns. Simons consistently falls just short of inflated lines, suggesting the market overvalues his three-point ceiling. The main risk is a hot shooting night breaking the pattern, but the structural factors favor continued under performance. Target standard 3.5 lines for maximum value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-09 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anfernee Simons's 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Anfernee Simons has gone under his three-pointers made prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60% under rate) with a 4-6-0 over/under record. The under bets have generated a positive 14.6% ROI while overs lose money at -23.6%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anfernee Simons 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Bet the under on Anfernee Simons three-pointers made props. The 60% under hit rate and 14.6% ROI on unders shows a clear mathematical edge, while overs are losing propositions at -23.6% ROI over this sample.
What's Anfernee Simons's average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Anfernee Simons is averaging exactly 3.5 three-pointers made over his last 10 games, which perfectly matches the typical betting line of 3.5. However, the distribution favors unders despite the identical average and line.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Anfernee Simons three-point unders when the line is set at his season average of 3.5 or higher. The best value comes on standard lines where the market appears to consistently overprice his ceiling performances.