Anfernee Simons has been a steal prop goldmine on one day of rest, hitting under 0.5 steals in 73.9% of games with a devastating 6-17 over/under record. The Trail Blazers guard averages just 0.39 steals against a typical 0.5 line, creating consistent value on unders.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a crystal clear picture: Anfernee Simons struggles to generate steals when playing on one day of rest. His 26.1% over rate across 23 games represents a significant statistical edge, particularly given the consistency of this underperformance. The -0.1 differential between his average (0.39) and the standard line (0.5) might seem small, but it's massive in the binary world of steal props where you either get one or you don't. Simons's role as Portland's primary offensive initiator likely contributes to this trend - when he's focused on creating offense with limited rest, his defensive anticipation and gambling for steals diminishes. The current three-game under streak aligns with his longer eight-game under run, suggesting this isn't random variance but a legitimate pattern. Portland's pace and defensive schemes on back-to-back situations may also play a role, as tired legs often translate to less aggressive defensive positioning. The sample size of 23 games provides statistical significance, and the consistency of this trend across nearly two full seasons indicates it's not merely a hot streak but a fundamental characteristic of how Simons plays with one day of rest.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Simons's 73.9% under rate on one day of rest represents one of the strongest defensive prop trends in the NBA. The combination of his offensive responsibilities, physical fatigue, and Portland's system creates a perfect storm for steal prop unders. Target this whenever Simons plays on one day of rest, especially if the line sits at 0.5 steals. The main risk is a blowout game where garbage time could produce cheap steals, but even then, his historical data suggests he rarely reaches the threshold.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anfernee Simons's Steals prop record 1 day rest?
Anfernee Simons has gone 6-17 over/under on steals props when playing on one day of rest across 23 games since December 2023. This represents a 26.1% over rate and -50.2% ROI on overs, making it one of the strongest under trends available.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anfernee Simons Steals 1 day rest?
Bet under on Anfernee Simons steals props when he plays on one day of rest. His 73.9% under rate and 0.39 average against typical 0.5 lines creates consistent value. This is a high-confidence play with nearly two seasons of supporting data.
What's Anfernee Simons's average Steals 1 day rest?
Anfernee Simons averages 0.39 steals when playing on one day of rest, which is 0.1 below the standard 0.5 line. While this differential seems small, it's significant for binary props where you either hit the number or you don't.
How reliable is this trend?
The best time to bet Simons steals props is when Portland plays on one day of rest, particularly if the line is set at 0.5 steals. Avoid during potential blowouts where garbage time could inflate defensive stats, but otherwise this trend shows remarkable consistency.