Anfernee Simons has gone under his steals prop in 55% of home games (11-9-0 record), averaging 0.6 steals against a typical 0.55 line. The under bet shows a profitable +5.0% ROI compared to -14.1% on overs. Lean under on Simons steals props at home.
Expert Analysis
Anfernee Simons's home steals production reveals a subtle but exploitable edge for under bettors. The 0.6 average against a 0.55 line appears favorable for overs, but the 45% over rate tells the real story - Simons frequently falls short of expectations in Portland. This disconnect stems from his offensive-focused role at home, where the Trail Blazers rely heavily on his scoring and playmaking rather than defensive disruption. Simons averages 22.9 points and 5.8 assists at Moda Center, suggesting his energy allocation prioritizes offense over gambling for steals. The home environment also typically features more structured offensive sets from opponents, reducing transition opportunities where guards like Simons generate most steals. His recent form shows two consecutive unders, extending a pattern where he's hit longer under streaks (up to 4 games) than over streaks (maximum 3). The profitable under ROI of +5.0% validates this trend's sustainability, while the -14.1% over ROI warns against chasing the slightly inflated average. Portland's defensive scheme emphasizes team concepts over individual steal hunting, making Simons more of a positional defender at home than an aggressive ball hawk.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 55% under rate combined with positive ROI creates a sustainable edge despite the seemingly favorable 0.6 average. Target unders when Simons faces structured offenses or in high-scoring games where his offensive responsibilities increase. Primary risk is variance in a small sample, but the consistent pattern of energy allocation toward offense at home supports continued under value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anfernee Simons's Steals prop record home games?
Anfernee Simons has gone under his steals prop in 11 of 20 home games (55% under rate) with a 9-11-0 over/under record. The under bet has generated a positive 5.0% ROI compared to losing -14.1% on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anfernee Simons Steals home games?
Bet under on Anfernee Simons steals props at home games. Despite averaging 0.6 steals versus a 0.55 line, he goes under 55% of the time with profitable returns, indicating the line overvalues his defensive production.
What's Anfernee Simons's average Steals home games?
Anfernee Simons averages 0.6 steals in home games, which is 0.05 steals above the typical 0.55 line. However, this small edge is misleading as he fails to hit the over 55% of the time.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Simons steals unders in high-scoring home games where his offensive workload increases, or against structured offenses that limit transition opportunities. Avoid when Portland faces turnover-prone teams or in blowout scenarios where garbage time creates steal chances.