Anfernee Simons presents a compelling under opportunity with just 34.2% overs across 38 games, consistently falling short of his 0.5 steal line. His 0.47 average versus the 0.53 line creates a -0.1 differential that has produced +25.6% ROI on unders. This is a clear lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
Anfernee Simons's steal production reveals a fundamental mismatch between market expectations and his actual defensive output. At 0.47 steals per game against a typical 0.5 line, Simons consistently underperforms by a meaningful margin that compounds over time. The 34.2% over rate across 38 games isn't a small sample fluke—it represents a systematic pattern rooted in his role and skill set. As Portland's primary offensive engine, Simons expends significant energy on the scoring end, averaging over 18 points per game while handling substantial playmaking duties. This offensive load naturally limits his defensive intensity and risk-taking, as the Trail Blazers need him healthy and available rather than gambling for steals. His current four-game under streak extends a longer pattern of defensive passivity, with his longest under streak reaching 10 games. The -34.7% ROI on overs tells the story of a market that hasn't fully adjusted to Simons's defensive limitations. His steal rate remains stubbornly below league average for guards, and Portland's defensive scheme doesn't emphasize aggressive ball pressure that would inflate his opportunities. The persistence of this trend across different opponents and game situations suggests it's player-specific rather than circumstantial.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Simons's 0.47 average creates consistent value against the standard 0.5 line, supported by strong historical returns. The ideal conditions are any game where the line sits at 0.5, as his role limitations make exceeding this threshold challenging. The main risk is a blowout scenario where Portland trails significantly and Simons increases defensive aggression, but his offensive responsibilities typically prevent such gambles.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anfernee Simons's Steals prop record all games?
Anfernee Simons has gone under his steals prop in 25 of 38 games (65.8% under rate) with just 13 overs. His 0.47 steal average consistently falls short of the typical 0.5 line, creating a reliable under pattern.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anfernee Simons Steals all games?
Bet under on Anfernee Simons steals props. His 34.2% over rate and +25.6% under ROI show consistent value, especially at the standard 0.5 line where his 0.47 average creates a meaningful edge.
What's Anfernee Simons's average Steals all games?
Anfernee Simons averages 0.47 steals per game compared to his typical 0.53 line, creating a -0.1 differential. This gap consistently favors under bets and has produced strong returns across 38 games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Simons steal unders when the line is set at 0.5, which occurs most frequently. His offensive workload and defensive limitations make this threshold difficult to exceed regardless of opponent or game situation.